465
FXUS61 KRLX 161436
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1036 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
One more hot day today with the chance for storms. A cold front
on Wednesday brings much needed rainfall and finally breaks the
heat. Isolated t-storms possible this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Tuesday...

High blown off cirrus from convection digging south across
central KY will gradually produce scattered to broken skies.
However, do not expect to obscure the skies completely. Morning
temperatures are rising as expected. Previous forecast remains
on track.

As of 635 AM Tuesday...

Modified the sky forecast this morning as convective blow off
from last night`s activity from the western Ohio Valley tracks
overhead. This set forth quite the hazy sunrise here at the
forecast office. Additional high cirrus pressing through
western Ohio at the time of writing will stream into the
forecast area in the next few hours, and will likely fester into
much of the day. This, in addition to anticipated storm
development this afternoon, should temper temperatures and heat
index values as previously anticipated. Therefore, opted for a
Special Weather Statement for the central lowlands highlighting
upper 90s/possibly low 100 heat indices, and held off on issuing
an advisory.

As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Early morning radar trends reflect a similar setup to yesterday,
where an overnight convective complex is attempting an eastward
progression through the Ohio Valley, and weakening in the
process. This will bode monitoring towards daybreak, as outflow
boundaries could ignite new development along the line and bring
a morning round of showers and storms to the western flank of
the forecast area. Otherwise, anvil blow off from this decaying
MCS will blanket the area throughout the predawn hours, and
fester overhead today.

A digging upper-level trough will drift southward into the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley throughout the day, providing leverage
for renewed convection out ahead of a nearing cold front. Storms
will reignite back in Ohio around midday and aim for the
Central Appalachians late in the afternoon and into the evening.
Uncertainty also exists whether the decaying MCS from this
morning will also serve as a focus for additional storms as it
tracks through the northeast WV mountains. Primary concern with
healthier storms will be damaging wind gusts.

The cold front will enter the lower Ohio Valley late tonight,
maintaining showers and weakening convection through the end of
the valid near term period. Lackluster steering flow aloft will
encourage a slow progression of rain overnight. However, given
how dry the region has been recently, this enriching rainfall
will be welcoming, and should not pose a risk for flooding
heading into early Wednesday morning.

Heat will once again be a main topic point for today`s forecast,
but more so due to the relief that is close on the horizon with
the incoming cold front. Temperatures this afternoon will be
more dependent upon satellite and convective trends from
overnight activity, which yields a lesser chance for heat
indices reaching criteria as widespread in areas as they did on
Monday. This imposes more of a localized risk for heat index
values stretching into the low 100s today, focused more around
the Charleston metro area and down into Lincoln/Boone Counties,
as well as the Tri-State area of Ohio and Kentucky. Opting to
hold off on an advisory for today due to the uncertainty of
reaching criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Heavy downpours and a few strong storms possible ahead of and
  along a cold front on Wednesday.
* Cold front breaks the heat wave.

Precipitation is expected to be ongoing as a cold front approaches
the western flank of the CWA Wednesday morning. Showers and storms
should continue to blossom ahead of and along the front, which will
slowly proceed east across the area through Wednesday night.

A marginal risk for severe weather has been highlighted across the
eastern half of the CWA where a few stronger storms could develop
during the afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary hazard.
Precipitable water values ranging between 1.5 and 2.25 inches also
signal potential for heavy downpours on Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding could eventually materialize in poor drainage areas or
locations impacted by multiple storms.

On Thursday, surface high pressure noses in behind the front beneath
a lingering upper trough. Drier conditions should take hold
beginning in the northwest quadrant of the CWA, while a northward
migrating shortwave could reinvigorate shower and storm activity
along and near the mountains during the day. Activity should then
diminish after sundown.

The arrival of the aforementioned front brings an end to hot weather
and allows temperatures to lower to near, or slightly below,
normal. Afternoon highs for Wednesday are expected to be in the
80s in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains.
Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the week, with highs
ranging from mid 60s (mountains) to low 80s (lowlands).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Key Point:
* Drier on Friday, isolated showers and storms possible this
  weekend and early next week.

Surface high pressure transits the area on Friday, resulting in
quiet weather across the lowlands; however, moisture lingering
along the mountains could support isolated showers or storms
during the afternoon and evening. Thereafter, precipitation
chances remain in the forecast for the weekend and early next
week courtesy of a stalled frontal boundary to the south, and a
series of shortwaves passing overhead.

Discrepancies between models make it difficult to pin down
specific timing for the shortwaves, thus, a blended solution has
been used for PoPs. At this point, highest confidence in
precipitation exists for southern portions of the CWA, which
will be in closest proximity to the stationary front.

Temperatures are expected to remain around normal despite rising
a degree or two each day.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM Tuesday...

Hazy skies this morning are the result of high cirrus blow off
from convection over in the western Ohio Valley. Should continue
to see high clouds stream in as the main line of convection
stampedes to the Tennessee Valley. Active weather will make its
appearance in our airspace closer to 18Z this afternoon, as
additional showers and storms develop ahead of an incoming cold
front. VCTS was included at all terminals later today for the
potential for strong thunderstorms, which may prompt damaging
wind gusts and heavy downpours.

Showers and storms will persist into the overnight hours tonight
with the arrival of the cold front. MVFR ceilings attached to
the boundary will also encroach on the area late tonight into
Wednesday morning.

Outside of strong storms today, surface winds will become breezy
this afternoon, with occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible.
Surface flow becomes light and variable overnight preceding
FROPA. There could be potential for LLWS at some sites late in
the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this morning, becoming Medium later
this afternoon in showers/thunderstorms.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible
later today within showers and storms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through
Tuesday. The record high temperatures for Tuesday, July 16 are
listed below for our official climate sites, along with the
current forecast values.

Forecast / Record Highs
-----------------------
      Tuesday, 7/16   |
-----------------------
CRW | 95 / 104 (1988) |
HTS | 94 / 102 (1988) |
CKB | 92 /  97 (1995) |
PKB | 90 / 102 (1988) |
BKW | 90 /  96 (1912) |
EKN | 90 /  99 (1988) |
-----------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MEK

CLIMATE...MEK