997
FXUS61 KRLX 162147
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
547 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
One more hot day today with the chance for storms. A cold front
on Wednesday brings much needed rainfall and finally breaks the
heat. Isolated t-storms possible this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 540 PM Tuesday...

Have updated PoPs across much of the forecast area as scattered
showers and thunderstorms have developed over the last couple of
hours, gradually shifting to the S/E as time goes on. Gusty
winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected with this
activity as it continues to shift slowly southeast throughout
the evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 218 PM Tuesday...

Diurnal driven convection, enhanced by forcing from an upper-level
shortwave, under PWATs reaching 2 inches, is expected to develop
this afternoon, spreading strong to severe thunderstorms through
evening. SPC has outlooked the northern half of the area with a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms, and a marginal risk for the
rest of the area. The main threat will be damaging winds and heavy
downpours.

Unstable conditions remains through the overnight hours, without
upper-level support. With dewpoints staying in the lower 70s,
convection could survive and affect portions of NE OH and WV
tonight. High humidity with a light breeze will keep low
temperatures ranging from the mid 70s lowlands, into the mid
60s over our northeast mountains.

For Wednesday, the cold front will be closer to our west to provide
unstable conditions areawide, before arriving to SE OH by Wednesday
evening. Meanwhile, diurnal heating aided by several upper level
disturbances will bring good chances for showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the cold front Wednesday. The cold front is progged to exit
the eastern mountains by Wednesday evening. WPC has the area
outlooked into the marginal risk for excessive rainfall. However,
due to how dry the region has be recently, the rain will be more
beneficial than posing a risk for flooding.

Afternoon highs for Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 80s
across the lowlands, into the mid 70s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Heavy downpours and a few strong storms possible ahead of and
  along a cold front on Wednesday.
* Cold front breaks the heat wave.

Precipitation is expected to be ongoing as a cold front approaches
the western flank of the CWA Wednesday morning. Showers and storms
should continue to blossom ahead of and along the front, which will
slowly proceed east across the area through Wednesday night.

A marginal risk for severe weather has been highlighted across the
eastern half of the CWA where a few stronger storms could develop
during the afternoon. Damaging winds would be the primary hazard.
Precipitable water values ranging between 1.5 and 2.25 inches also
signal potential for heavy downpours on Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding could eventually materialize in poor drainage areas or
locations impacted by multiple storms.

On Thursday, surface high pressure noses in behind the front beneath
a lingering upper trough. Drier conditions should take hold
beginning in the northwest quadrant of the CWA, while a northward
migrating shortwave could reinvigorate shower and storm activity
along and near the mountains during the day. Activity should then
diminish after sundown.

The arrival of the aforementioned front brings an end to hot weather
and allows temperatures to lower to near, or slightly below,
normal. Afternoon highs for Wednesday are expected to be in the
80s in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains.
Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the week, with highs
ranging from mid 60s (mountains) to low 80s (lowlands).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Tuesday...

After a break in the heat and stormy conditions across much of the
area, the weekend into next week looks to become unsettled once
again. Southwesterly flow across the area from ridge of high
pressure across the east, and upper trough to our west will dominate
the period, with increasing heat and humidity for our region.
Shortwaves moving through the flow at times, combined with the
effects of diurnal heating will keep a mention of shower and storm
chances in the forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any
storms will contain heavy downpours, particularly as we get into
early next week and PW values surge above 2 inches again, and will
be overall slow to move owing to light steering flow.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 132 PM Tuesday...

High cirrus, blown off from convection over western KY, will
blanket the area this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers and
thunderstorms may develop under an environment characterized by
CAPE exceeding 3,000 J/Kg, PWATs exceeding 2.0 inches, and deep
layered shear of about 25 knots. This environment will allow for
stronger storms to produce damaging winds and heavy downpours
ahead of an approaching cold front. Continued coding VCTS across
most sites as it is difficult to pin point whether strong
thunderstorms would affect any terminal. Will need amendments
to better time convection over terminals this afternoon and
evening.

Showers and storms will persist into the overnight hours tonight as
several shortwaves pass through the area. Guidance suggests low
stratus may develop overnight bringing periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings
across the northern sections, including PKB and CKB, roughly from
09Z to 14Z Wednesday.

Breezy this afternoon gusting up to 20 knots. Southerly flow becomes
light and variable tonight, and from the south on Wednesday. Winds
will be strong, variable and gusty near stronger storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of showers and
storms may vary from forecast. Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions are
possible within showers and storms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through
Tuesday. The record high temperatures for Tuesday, July 16 are
listed below for our official climate sites, along with the
current forecast values.

Forecast / Record Highs
-----------------------
      Tuesday, 7/16   |
-----------------------
CRW | 95 / 104 (1988) |
HTS | 94 / 102 (1988) |
CKB | 92 /  97 (1995) |
PKB | 90 / 102 (1988) |
BKW | 90 /  96 (1912) |
EKN | 90 /  99 (1988) |
-----------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ
CLIMATE...MEK