075
FXUS61 KRLX 171435
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1035 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers/storms continues into Thursday ahead of
and along a crossing cold front. Mainly dry and cooler finish
to the work week. Isolated t-storms possible this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Wednesday...

Satellite imagery and surface observations show broken deck of mid
level clouds covering the local region at this time. Breaks in
the sky will allow for heating to take place, destabilizing the
atmosphere to produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
SB CAPE will increase to 1,500 to 2,000 J/Kg, under deep layered
shear of around 35 knots. With PWATs around 2 inches and
saturated skinny soundings, expect showers and storms capable
to produce heavy downpours. Strong gusty winds are anticipated
with stronger storms. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
remains over the entire area through tonight.

As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Made minor adjustments to POPs and temperatures this morning to
maintain reflection of current observations. Light showers have
now pressed into the Ohio River Valley, with more rain and
isolated thunderstorms tracking through Kentucky. Radar trends
will dictate any additional updates to POPs as we progress
through the morning and afternoon.

As of 236 AM Wednesday...

After several nights of watching overnight convection from afar,
this early morning forecast update will start off a bit more
active. A ribbon of showers and weakening thunderstorms were
approaching our northwest KY counties at the time of writing,
and is anticipated to hike up the Ohio River Valley through the
early morning hours. This sets the tone for a more active
forecast period as we await a cold front sweeping through the
Ohio Valley.

Waves of energy riding along and ahead of the front today will
help enhance showers and storms this morning into the afternoon.
While the severe threat will be almost out of our hair, we could
still see a few healthier storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts. PWATs on the order of 1.5 to 2 inches, with
pockets of locally higher amounts, will encourage heavy
downpours with activity today as well. Considering abnormally
dry soil conditions, flooding concerns will be limited to only
localized, flood prone areas.

The front slides southward late tonight as a robust upper level
trough drives through the Great Lakes into New England. Showers
and storm chances diminish gradually overnight into Thursday
morning as the front sails down into the Carolinas. Drier air
pivots down from the northwest with the eastward push of the
upper trough, allowing for clearing skies to be introduced by
the conclusion of the near term period.

The relief from the heat wave takes shape today, with afternoon
highs returning closer to normal for this time of year, with low
to mid 80s in the lowlands and mid 70s to mid 80s along the
mountains and down into the coalfields. Humidity will also
trend downward through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:
* High pressure builds in behind a front, resulting in a
  quieter conclusion to the work week.
* Post-front temperatures hover slightly below normal.

A cold front eases away from the area Thursday morning. High
pressure starts building in behind the front and allows drier
conditions to invade the lowlands during the day; however, enough
moisture could linger along the mountains to support isolated
showers or storms through the afternoon. On Friday, surface
high pressure gains control within the CWA while the front sinks
farther south and eventually settles over the Carolinas. This
should result in a quieter and drier conclusion to the work
week.

A welcome break in hot temperatures comes in the wake of the front,
with high temperatures for Thursday projected to be in the low 80s
in the lowlands and upper 60s to around 80 in the mountains.
Temperatures remain just shy of normal on Friday despite achieving
highs a couple degrees warmer than the previous day. Lows
should range from 50s to low 60s Thursday night and then mid 50s
to 60s Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:
* Frontal boundary provides a focus for showers and storms this
  weekend into next week.
* Temperatures remain near normal into next week.

A frontal boundary, initially sprawled across the southeast US,
gravitates north and then stalls near the VA/WV border this
weekend into early next week. Isolated showers and storms will
be most likely to occur in the vicinity of this boundary during
peak heating hours each day, though more extensive activity
could accompany the passage of a couple shortwaves. Monday night
into Tuesday, a low tracks northeast towards the Great Lakes
and lifts the front through the area. Unsettled conditions
remain possible into mid week as moisture streams into the area
behind the front.

Temperatures are expected to remain right around normal throughout
the long term forecast period, with daily highs in the 80s for
the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s along the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

An advancing cold front will impose rounds of showers and
afternoon thunderstorms today, before completing its passing
overnight into Thursday morning. Outside of a valiant attempt at
fog at CRW and EKN overnight, ceilings have remained in low-end
VFR and should remain the case throughout the day.

Radar at the time of writing showed another cluster of
precipitation perusing the Ohio/Kentucky state line, and will
work its way into our airspace over the next few hours. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded, and may provoke
damaging wind gusts. VCTS with low end VFR cigs across all
sites this afternoon and evening as we await the frontal
passage.

The front crosses through late tonight into Thursday morning,
with precipitation tapering down in the process. Lingering
moisture will promote a combination of fog and low level stratus
early Thursday morning.

Light to breezy southwesterly winds are anticipated today in the
pre-frontal environment. Occasional gusts of 15-20 kts may be
observed along the higher terrain. Surface flow becomes calm
overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible
within heavier showers or thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ