Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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624 FXUS61 KRLX 171555 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1155 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The chance for showers/storms continues into Thursday ahead of and along a crossing cold front. Mainly dry and cooler finish to the work week. Isolated t-storms possible this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Wednesday... Satellite imagery and surface observations show broken deck of mid level clouds covering the local region at this time. Breaks in the sky will allow for heating to take place, destabilizing the atmosphere to produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. SB CAPE will increase to 1,500 to 2,000 J/Kg, under deep layered shear of around 35 knots. With PWATs around 2 inches and saturated skinny soundings, expect showers and storms capable to produce heavy downpours. Strong gusty winds are anticipated with stronger storms. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms remains over the entire area through tonight. As of 630 AM Wednesday... Made minor adjustments to POPs and temperatures this morning to maintain reflection of current observations. Light showers have now pressed into the Ohio River Valley, with more rain and isolated thunderstorms tracking through Kentucky. Radar trends will dictate any additional updates to POPs as we progress through the morning and afternoon. As of 236 AM Wednesday... After several nights of watching overnight convection from afar, this early morning forecast update will start off a bit more active. A ribbon of showers and weakening thunderstorms were approaching our northwest KY counties at the time of writing, and is anticipated to hike up the Ohio River Valley through the early morning hours. This sets the tone for a more active forecast period as we await a cold front sweeping through the Ohio Valley. Waves of energy riding along and ahead of the front today will help enhance showers and storms this morning into the afternoon. While the severe threat will be almost out of our hair, we could still see a few healthier storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. PWATs on the order of 1.5 to 2 inches, with pockets of locally higher amounts, will encourage heavy downpours with activity today as well. Considering abnormally dry soil conditions, flooding concerns will be limited to only localized, flood prone areas. The front slides southward late tonight as a robust upper level trough drives through the Great Lakes into New England. Showers and storm chances diminish gradually overnight into Thursday morning as the front sails down into the Carolinas. Drier air pivots down from the northwest with the eastward push of the upper trough, allowing for clearing skies to be introduced by the conclusion of the near term period. The relief from the heat wave takes shape today, with afternoon highs returning closer to normal for this time of year, with low to mid 80s in the lowlands and mid 70s to mid 80s along the mountains and down into the coalfields. Humidity will also trend downward through the period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... Key Points: * High pressure builds in behind a front, resulting in a quieter conclusion to the work week. * Post-front temperatures hover slightly below normal. A cold front eases away from the area Thursday morning. High pressure starts building in behind the front and allows drier conditions to invade the lowlands during the day; however, enough moisture could linger along the mountains to support isolated showers or storms through the afternoon. On Friday, surface high pressure gains control within the CWA while the front sinks farther south and eventually settles over the Carolinas. This should result in a quieter and drier conclusion to the work week. A welcome break in hot temperatures comes in the wake of the front, with high temperatures for Thursday projected to be in the low 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to around 80 in the mountains. Temperatures remain just shy of normal on Friday despite achieving highs a couple degrees warmer than the previous day. Lows should range from 50s to low 60s Thursday night and then mid 50s to 60s Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1150 AM Wednesday... The remainder of the weekend into next week looks to remain unsettled. Southwesterly flow across the area from ridge of high pressure across the east, and upper trough to our west will dominate the period, with increasing heat and humidity for our region. Shortwaves moving through the flow at times, combined with the effects of diurnal heating will keep a mention of shower and storm chances in the forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any storms will contain heavy downpours, particularly as we get into early next week and PW values surge above 2 inches again, and will be overall slow to move owing to light steering flow. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 630 AM Wednesday... An advancing cold front will impose rounds of showers and afternoon thunderstorms today, before completing its passing overnight into Thursday morning. Outside of a valiant attempt at fog at CRW and EKN overnight, ceilings have remained in low-end VFR and should remain the case throughout the day. Radar at the time of writing showed another cluster of precipitation perusing the Ohio/Kentucky state line, and will work its way into our airspace over the next few hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded, and may provoke damaging wind gusts. VCTS with low end VFR cigs across all sites this afternoon and evening as we await the frontal passage. The front crosses through late tonight into Thursday morning, with precipitation tapering down in the process. Lingering moisture will promote a combination of fog and low level stratus early Thursday morning. Light to breezy southwesterly winds are anticipated today in the pre-frontal environment. Occasional gusts of 15-20 kts may be observed along the higher terrain. Surface flow becomes calm overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible within heavier showers or thunderstorms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Saturday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB NEAR TERM...MEK SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ