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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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279 FXUS61 KRLX 172055 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 455 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The chance for showers/storms continues into early Thursday ahead of and along a crossing cold front. Mainly dry and cooler finish to the work week. Isolated t-storms possible this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 450 PM Wednesday... Made a quick update to temperatures, cloud cover, PoPs, and wind gusts through this evening to represent the latest trends. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of the region late this afternoon, primarily in/near the mountains and across northern portions of the Mid-Ohio Valley. The surface cold front is just now entering the far northwest portion of the CWA. Still do expect strong to isolated severe thunderstorms throughout the evening, with the greatest potential being ahead/along the cold front in SE OH into N WV. Given freezing levels at ~15 kft, the main hazard with storms will continue to be damaging wind gusts, although small hail and locally heavy downpours also do remain possible. Antecedent dry weather of late should largely mitigate any flooding concerns. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 130 PM Wednesday... A slow moving cold front finally arrives into the Middle OH valley this evening. The environment remains unstable with SB CAPE reaching 2,000 J/Kg, deep layered shear about 25-30 knots, and PWATs 1.5 to 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along the front, some becoming strong to severe this afternoon and evening. Although loosing some strength after sunset, showers and storms may continue along and ahead of the front tonight. The front should exit east of the Appalachians during the overnight hours, putting an end to the shower activity. However, abundant low level moisture and a robust upper level trough across the Northeastern states will maintain low level clouds, more prominent along the western foothills and eastern mountains into Thursday morning. Therefore, expect periods of low stratus and/or dense fog Thursday morning, mainly along the mountains and over areas with recent rainfall. By Thursday morning, surface high pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, takes control providing a drier airmass under north to northeast flow. This will bring clearing for most places by Thursday afternoon and night. Tonight`s temperatures will be slightly above normal, ranging from the low to mid 60s across the lowlands, into the upper 50s northeast mountains. Thursday`s afternoon temperatures will be about normal, ranging from the mid 80s lowlands, into the upper 60s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 203 PM Wednesday... Cold front east of the mountains Thursday night into Friday, with overall drier conditions taking hold. There will still be the possibility for convection across the mountains on Friday, from any lingering moisture along with expected shortwaves crossing the area, but overall, much of the CWA will remain dry, and any storm coverage will be isolated in nature. High temperatures Friday look to top out in the 70s to lower 80s across the mountains, and the lower to mid 80s across the lowlands. Showers and storms will continue to be possible on Saturday, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours, as the aforementioned frontal boundary lifts north into the CWA. Bulk of the activity on Saturday generally looks to remain south and east of the Ohio River. An uptick in the heat and humidity can also be expected on Saturday as the boundary lifts north. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1150 AM Wednesday... The remainder of the weekend into next week looks to remain unsettled. Southwesterly flow across the area from ridge of high pressure across the east, and upper trough to our west will dominate the period, with increasing heat and humidity for our region. Shortwaves moving through the flow at times, combined with the effects of diurnal heating will keep a mention of shower and storm chances in the forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any storms will contain heavy downpours, particularly as we get into early next week and PW values surge above 2 inches again, and will be overall slow to move owing to light steering flow. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 158 PM Wednesday... Starting the period with VFR conditions under scattered to broken skies about 6kft. However, convection will start firing up early in the period as a cold front approaches from the west. The environment remains unstable with SB CAPE reaching 2,000 J/Kg, deep layered shear about 25-30 knots, and PWATs 1.5 to 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along the front, some becoming strong to severe this afternoon and evening. Expect brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions along the stronger showers and thunderstorms. Terminals most likely to be affected by storms will be CRW, HTS and PKB through at least 23Z. Then, the cold front will continue drifting southeast to affect CKB and EKN through the evening hours. Hi-res CAMs suggest a cluster of thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it moves across the southern coalfields late tonight. This could keep BKW under MVFR/IFR conditions under showers or storms. Guidance suggests development of low stratus and/or fog across a widespread area of our CWA. Believe it will be more low stratus than fog per amount of clouds and the passing front. So, coded IFR/LIFR conditions over eastern terminals from 08Z to 13-14Z Thursday morning. High pressure behind the front will bring drier airmass and widespread VFR conditions for the rest of the day Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of MVFR/IFR restrictions may vary from forecast. IFR/LIFR low stratus may not be as widespread as expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Saturday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW/LS SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ