567
FXUS61 KRLX 201606
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1206 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances along and southeast of the Ohio River today. More
showers and storms expected Sunday. Looking unsettled next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Saturday...

A moist southwesterly flow will remain in place during the
period, as an upper trough deepens across the lower Ohio Valley/MS
Valley regions. Showers and storms can be expected at times during
the period, from a result of peak heating, and shortwaves moving
through the flow at times. Bulk of activity today should generally
remain south and east of the Ohio River, with a more
northward/westward spread in pops for Sunday as a boundary moves
north into the area. Light flow during the period means overall
showers/storms will be somewhat slow to move, and severe is not
anticipated. Much of the area will be dry overnight, but areas of
fog are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1156 AM Saturday...

A long amplitude upper-level trough and associated closed low over
the Midwest region will deepen over the central and southern CONUS,
Sunday night and Monday. Its position will allow for a series of
H500 vorticity maxima to ride over a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary over our area, enhancing showers and thunderstorms. Severe
weather is not expected at this time, but will watch for heavy
downpours or repetitive showers over the same areas that could
produce minor flooding problems.

Drier weather is expected Monday night. However, conditions remains
unsettled as another cluster of mid-level vorticity moves over our
area and the quasi-stationary front becomes diffuse across our
north on Tuesday. Chance PoPs will increase from south to north
throughout the Tuesday morning, becoming likely for most by
afternoon as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage.
Once again, severe weather is not anticipated at this time and
will have to keep an eye on the heavy downpours and minor
flooding issues.

High humidity at night, and clouds and cooling showers during
the afternoons will produce muggy nights with temperatures from
the mid to upper 60s, but near normal afternoon temperatures,
generally in the mid 80s lowlands, ranging into the upper 60s
northeast mountains for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1156 AM Saturday...

The weather remains active by mid week as another H500 shortwave
drops from the Great Lakes south into the OH valley and WV Wednesday
night and Thursday. This feature will push a cold front from the
northwest that becomes stationary upon its arrival late Thursday into
Friday. Accepted general guidance suggesting likely and categorical
PoPs for this time frame.

With abundant cloudiness and cooling effects from showers, expect
near normal afternoon temperatures, but muggy nights with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 AM Saturday...

EKN has been flirting with MVFR vsby the past hour or two, but
aside from brief hints of 4SM, it has stayed mostly VFR. Did
tempo in MVFR vsby for the first hour to account for some
lingering fog potential. Otherwise, VFR prevailing conditions
are expected today and into this evening, with TEMPO groups for
thunderstorm potential noted for all except HTS and PKB. The 18z
TAFs may be able to zero in on some tighter time frames for
thunderstorm potential at some terminals, but as of now, the
confidence wasn`t there for much more than a relatively broad
brush approach.

With general clearing and calming winds noted for a good
portion of tonight, it is likely that any valley spot that gets
rain today will fog tonight. For now, did bring some spots down
to IFR vsby as a signal of fog potential.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread shower/storm activity this
afternoon could lead to more common category reductions. Fog
timing and coverage tonight may differ from the forecast, and
will likely be focused in valley locations that get rain today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible each afternoon and evening for
Monday through Wednesday in any heavier thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...FK