089
FXUS61 KRLX 171803
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers/storms continues into early Thursday ahead
of and along a crossing cold front. Mainly dry and cooler finish
to the work week. Isolated t-storms possible this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

A slow moving cold front finally arrives into the Middle OH valley
this evening. The environment remains unstable with SB CAPE
reaching 2,000 J/Kg, deep layered shear about 25-30 knots, and
PWATs 1.5 to 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead
and along the front, some becoming strong to severe this
afternoon and evening. Although loosing some strength after
sunset, showers and storms may continue along and ahead of the
front tonight.

The front should exit east of the Appalachians during the
overnight hours, putting an end to the shower activity. However,
abundant low level moisture and a robust upper level trough
across the Northeastern states will maintain low level clouds,
more prominent along the western foothills and eastern mountains
into Thursday morning. Therefore, expect periods of low stratus
and/or dense fog Thursday morning, mainly along the mountains
and over areas with recent rainfall.

By Thursday morning, surface high pressure, centered over the Great
Lakes, takes control providing a drier airmass under north to
northeast flow. This will bring clearing for most places by Thursday
afternoon and night.

Tonight`s temperatures will be slightly above normal, ranging from
the low to mid 60s across the lowlands, into the upper 50s northeast
mountains. Thursday`s afternoon temperatures will be about normal,
ranging from the mid 80s lowlands, into the upper 60s northeast
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 203 PM Wednesday...

Cold front east of the mountains Thursday night into Friday, with
overall drier conditions taking hold. There will still be the
possibility for convection across the mountains on Friday, from any
lingering moisture along with expected shortwaves crossing the area,
but overall, much of the CWA will remain dry, and any storm coverage
will be isolated in nature. High temperatures Friday look to top out
in the 70s to lower 80s across the mountains, and the lower to mid
80s across the lowlands. Showers and storms will continue to be
possible on Saturday, particularly during the afternoon and evening
hours, as the aforementioned frontal boundary lifts north into the
CWA. Bulk of the activity on Saturday generally looks to remain
south and east of the Ohio River. An uptick in the heat and humidity
can also be expected on Saturday as the boundary lifts north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Wednesday...

The remainder of the weekend into next week looks to remain
unsettled. Southwesterly flow across the area from ridge of high
pressure across the east, and upper trough to our west will dominate
the period, with increasing heat and humidity for our region.
Shortwaves moving through the flow at times, combined with the
effects of diurnal heating will keep a mention of shower and storm
chances in the forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any
storms will contain heavy downpours, particularly as we get into
early next week and PW values surge above 2 inches again, and will
be overall slow to move owing to light steering flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 158 PM Wednesday...

Starting the period with VFR conditions under scattered to
broken skies about 6kft. However, convection will start firing
up early in the period as a cold front approaches from the west.

The environment remains unstable with SB CAPE reaching 2,000
J/Kg, deep layered shear about 25-30 knots, and PWATs 1.5 to 2
inches. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along
the front, some becoming strong to severe this afternoon and
evening. Expect brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions along the
stronger showers and thunderstorms. Terminals most likely to be
affected by storms will be CRW, HTS and PKB through at least
23Z. Then, the cold front will continue drifting southeast to
affect CKB and EKN through the evening hours.

Hi-res CAMs suggest a cluster of thunderstorms will accompany
the cold front as it moves across the southern coalfields late
tonight. This could keep BKW under MVFR/IFR conditions under
showers or storms.

Guidance suggests development of low stratus and/or fog across a
widespread area of our CWA. Believe it will be more low stratus
than fog per amount of clouds and the passing front. So, coded
IFR/LIFR conditions over eastern terminals from 08Z to 13-14Z
Thursday morning.

High pressure behind the front will bring drier airmass and
widespread VFR conditions for the rest of the day Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of MVFR/IFR restrictions may vary
from forecast. IFR/LIFR low stratus may not be as widespread as
expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ