074
FXUS61 KRLX 180050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
850 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers/storms continues into early Thursday ahead
of and along a crossing cold front. Mainly dry and cooler finish
to the work week. Isolated t-storms possible this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 450 PM Wednesday...

Made a quick update to temperatures, cloud cover, PoPs, and wind
gusts through this evening to represent the latest trends.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across
portions of the region late this afternoon, primarily in/near
the mountains and across northern portions of the Mid-Ohio
Valley. The surface cold front is just now entering the far
northwest portion of the CWA. Still do expect strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms throughout the evening, with the
greatest potential being ahead/along the cold front in SE OH
into N WV. Given freezing levels at ~15 kft, the main hazard
with storms will continue to be damaging wind gusts, although
small hail and locally heavy downpours also do remain possible.
Antecedent dry weather of late should largely mitigate any
flooding concerns. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 130 PM Wednesday...

A slow moving cold front finally arrives into the Middle OH valley
this evening. The environment remains unstable with SB CAPE
reaching 2,000 J/Kg, deep layered shear about 25-30 knots, and
PWATs 1.5 to 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead
and along the front, some becoming strong to severe this
afternoon and evening. Although loosing some strength after
sunset, showers and storms may continue along and ahead of the
front tonight.

The front should exit east of the Appalachians during the
overnight hours, putting an end to the shower activity. However,
abundant low level moisture and a robust upper level trough
across the Northeastern states will maintain low level clouds,
more prominent along the western foothills and eastern mountains
into Thursday morning. Therefore, expect periods of low stratus
and/or dense fog Thursday morning, mainly along the mountains
and over areas with recent rainfall.

By Thursday morning, surface high pressure, centered over the Great
Lakes, takes control providing a drier airmass under north to
northeast flow. This will bring clearing for most places by Thursday
afternoon and night.

Tonight`s temperatures will be slightly above normal, ranging from
the low to mid 60s across the lowlands, into the upper 50s northeast
mountains. Thursday`s afternoon temperatures will be about normal,
ranging from the mid 80s lowlands, into the upper 60s northeast
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 203 PM Wednesday...

Cold front east of the mountains Thursday night into Friday, with
overall drier conditions taking hold. There will still be the
possibility for convection across the mountains on Friday, from any
lingering moisture along with expected shortwaves crossing the area,
but overall, much of the CWA will remain dry, and any storm coverage
will be isolated in nature. High temperatures Friday look to top out
in the 70s to lower 80s across the mountains, and the lower to mid
80s across the lowlands. Showers and storms will continue to be
possible on Saturday, particularly during the afternoon and evening
hours, as the aforementioned frontal boundary lifts north into the
CWA. Bulk of the activity on Saturday generally looks to remain
south and east of the Ohio River. An uptick in the heat and humidity
can also be expected on Saturday as the boundary lifts north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Wednesday...

The remainder of the weekend into next week looks to remain
unsettled. Southwesterly flow across the area from ridge of high
pressure across the east, and upper trough to our west will dominate
the period, with increasing heat and humidity for our region.
Shortwaves moving through the flow at times, combined with the
effects of diurnal heating will keep a mention of shower and storm
chances in the forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any
storms will contain heavy downpours, particularly as we get into
early next week and PW values surge above 2 inches again, and will
be overall slow to move owing to light steering flow.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 830 PM Wednesday...

Scattered showers and highly isolated thunderstorms are
expected tonight as a cold front crosses through the area. Brief
IFR/MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible within any heavier
showers or storms. Otherwise, some patchy fog is possible in
areas that received rainfall today, but the bigger aviation
concern will be with developing MVFR/IFR/LIFR/VLIFR stratus,
with restrictions lowest in/near the mountains. Any fog that
develops will lift/dissipate by ~ 1230Z on Thursday. CIG
restrictions with stratus will however linger into the late
morning or early afternoon, persisting longest in/near the
mountains. VFR conditions then continue through the remainder of
the TAF period.

WSW flow ahead of the cold front veers to WNW throughout the
night following the passage of the front. Brief gusty conditions
of 15-20 kts are possible along the front, with light flow
expected thereafter. Light NNW/N flow is expected during the
day on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible within
any heavier showers or storms tonight. Restrictions with
fog/stratus tonight into Thursday may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 07/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible w/ river valley fog Thursday night
into Friday morning, then along the mountains Saturday morning
w/ stratus and showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW