489
FXUS61 KRLX 180603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front presses south of the area today. Mainly dry and
cooler finish to the work week. Isolated t-storms possible this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

An upper level trough pressing into New England today will drive
a surface cold front through the forecast area. Abundant low
level moisture still present overhead preceding the frontal
passage has led to a combination of low stratus and brief spurts
of fog early this morning. SPC Mesoanalysis also depicts pockets
of 300mb vorticity pressing through the Tennessee Valley and up
into the Central Appalachians early this morning, which has
maintained isolated to scattered clusters of showers streaming
in from the southwest.

The front is anticipated to reach the spine of the Appalachians
shortly after daybreak and aiming for the Carolinas by this
afternoon. High pressure digging down from the Upper Midwest
will begin to influence the area today, slowly chipping away at
lingering cloud cover and promoting drier weather for parts of
the forecast area. Post-frontal CAA northwesterly flow tends to
maintain clouds longer than models suggest, so did hold onto
broken/overcast into the early afternoon before allowing skies
to scatter out from northwest to southeast.

A low end chance for a shower or afternoon storm will still
exist today from the southern coalfields and up the higher
terrain, but severe weather is unlikely in the wake of the cold
front. Dry weather then overtakes the entire forecast area this
evening.

Relief from the heat wave will also be advertised with the
frontal passage today. The approaching high will introduce
lowering dew points/humidity levels this afternoon and evening,
and cooler overnight temperatures late tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 203 PM Wednesday...

Cold front east of the mountains Thursday night into Friday, with
overall drier conditions taking hold. There will still be the
possibility for convection across the mountains on Friday, from any
lingering moisture along with expected shortwaves crossing the area,
but overall, much of the CWA will remain dry, and any storm coverage
will be isolated in nature. High temperatures Friday look to top out
in the 70s to lower 80s across the mountains, and the lower to mid
80s across the lowlands. Showers and storms will continue to be
possible on Saturday, particularly during the afternoon and evening
hours, as the aforementioned frontal boundary lifts north into the
CWA. Bulk of the activity on Saturday generally looks to remain
south and east of the Ohio River. An uptick in the heat and humidity
can also be expected on Saturday as the boundary lifts north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Wednesday...

The remainder of the weekend into next week looks to remain
unsettled. Southwesterly flow across the area from ridge of high
pressure across the east, and upper trough to our west will dominate
the period, with increasing heat and humidity for our region.
Shortwaves moving through the flow at times, combined with the
effects of diurnal heating will keep a mention of shower and storm
chances in the forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any
storms will contain heavy downpours, particularly as we get into
early next week and PW values surge above 2 inches again, and will
be overall slow to move owing to light steering flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

A cold front continues to make eastward progress through the
area early this morning, prompting a combination of low stratus
and fog. Flight rules will bounce in and out of categories
during the predawn hours, which yielded tempo groups for the
majority of sites this morning. In addition, lingering showers
along and ahead of the front continue to stream through the
area.

After daybreak, drier air filtering in from the northwest will
begin to chip away at lowered ceilings. This will be a slow and
gradual process, with many terminals remaining in at least MVFR
conditions until the early afternoon before scattering out. A
low chance for afternoon showers and storms will be present near
BKW this afternoon, but dry weather is favored elsewhere today
in the wake of the front. Another decent signal for river valley
fog is progged for late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Light and variable winds this morning will become more
distinguished out of the northwest in the wake of FROPA later
today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with fog/stratus this morning
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 07/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible w/ river valley fog Thursday night
into Friday morning, then along the mountains Saturday morning
w/ stratus and showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK