655
FXUS61 KRLX 180612
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
212 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front presses south of the area today. Mainly dry and
cooler finish to the work week. Isolated t-storms possible this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

An upper level trough pressing into New England today will drive
a surface cold front through the forecast area. Abundant low
level moisture still present overhead preceding the frontal
passage has led to a combination of low stratus and brief spurts
of fog early this morning. SPC Mesoanalysis also depicts pockets
of 300mb vorticity pressing through the Tennessee Valley and up
into the Central Appalachians early this morning, which has
maintained isolated to scattered clusters of showers streaming
in from the southwest.

The front is anticipated to reach the spine of the Appalachians
shortly after daybreak and aiming for the Carolinas by this
afternoon. High pressure digging down from the Upper Midwest
will begin to influence the area today, slowly chipping away at
lingering cloud cover and promoting drier weather for parts of
the forecast area. Post-frontal CAA northwesterly flow tends to
maintain clouds longer than models suggest, so did hold onto
broken/overcast into the early afternoon before allowing skies
to scatter out from northwest to southeast.

A low end chance for a shower or afternoon storm will still
exist today from the southern coalfields and up the higher
terrain, but severe weather is unlikely in the wake of the cold
front. Dry weather then overtakes the entire forecast area this
evening.

Relief from the heat wave will also be advertised with the
frontal passage today. The approaching high will introduce
lowering dew points/humidity levels this afternoon and evening,
and cooler overnight temperatures late tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* Quieter and seasonably warm on Friday.
* Front reintroduces precipitation chances for the weekend.

On Friday, high pressure builds into the area from the north while a
front stretches across the southeastern states. The influence of
high pressure should extend far enough south to result in drier
weather across the bulk of the CWA. Quieter weather and
seasonable temperatures should make for a more pleasant end to
the work week.

Precipitation chances creep back into the area for Saturday as the
front migrates north and stalls over Virginia. Best chances for
showers and storms will exist in the vicinity of the front, though a
shortwave traveling along the boundary may also help enhance
activity along the mountains during the day. Activity should then
diminish in coverage overnight.

Daytime highs on Friday will be in the 80s for the lowlands and 70s
to low 80s for the mountains. Similar temperatures are expected for
the lowlands on Saturday; however, precipitation and cloud cover may
keep highs in the mid 60s to around 80 along the mountains. Lows for
both Friday night and Saturday night should be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

Key Point:
* Shower and storm chances persist as a front meanders across the
  region.

A front remains stalled to the south and provides a focus for
showers and storms - primarily across the southern portion of the
CWA - on Sunday. Precipitation chances should wane overnight, then
blossom again as the boundary eases north through the area Monday
and Tuesday. The front lifts out of the area by Wednesday morning,
but does not retreat far. Meanwhile, daytime heating and moisture
streaming in behind the front are likely to sustain unsettled
conditions within the area through the middle of the week.

Precipitable water values are projected to to climb to around 2
inches by mid week, which signals potential for heavy downpours with
any activity that develops during and after the frontal passage.

Early to mid week temperatures should be within a few degrees of
normal, with highs ranging from 80 to 90 degrees in the lowlands and
70s to low 80s along the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

A cold front continues to make eastward progress through the
area early this morning, prompting a combination of low stratus
and fog. Flight rules will bounce in and out of categories
during the predawn hours, which yielded tempo groups for the
majority of sites this morning. In addition, lingering showers
along and ahead of the front continue to stream through the
area.

After daybreak, drier air filtering in from the northwest will
begin to chip away at lowered ceilings. This will be a slow and
gradual process, with many terminals remaining in at least MVFR
conditions until the early afternoon before scattering out. A
low chance for afternoon showers and storms will be present near
BKW this afternoon, but dry weather is favored elsewhere today
in the wake of the front. Another decent signal for river valley
fog is progged for late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Light and variable winds this morning will become more
distinguished out of the northwest in the wake of FROPA later
today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with fog/stratus this morning
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible w/ river valley fog Thursday night
into Friday morning, then along the mountains Saturday morning
w/ stratus and showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MEK