290
FXUS61 KRLX 181654
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1254 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front presses south of the area today. Mainly dry and
cooler finish to the work week. Isolated t-storms possible this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

Forecast remains on track this morning, where the last batch of
precipitation ahead of the frontal passage continues to glide up
the spine of the Appalachians from the southwest. A few
lightning strikes have been noted in this area, but do not
foresee any severe or flooding concerns with this last sweep of
rain today. The cold front was analyzed to be aligned along the
Ohio River around the time of writing, and will continue its
southeastward progress and clear the forecast area by later on
this afternoon.

Clouds overnight did encourage temperatures in northeast West
Virginia to stay a few degrees warmer than anticipated, so
adjusted hourly temps upward from now into the early afternoon.
Otherwise, no other changes were needed with this update.

As of 200 AM Thursday...

An upper level trough pressing into New England today will drive
a surface cold front through the forecast area. Abundant low
level moisture still present overhead preceding the frontal
passage has led to a combination of low stratus and brief spurts
of fog early this morning. SPC Mesoanalysis also depicts pockets
of 300mb vorticity pressing through the Tennessee Valley and up
into the Central Appalachians early this morning, which has
maintained isolated to scattered clusters of showers streaming
in from the southwest.

The front is anticipated to reach the spine of the Appalachians
shortly after daybreak and aiming for the Carolinas by this
afternoon. High pressure digging down from the Upper Midwest
will begin to influence the area today, slowly chipping away at
lingering cloud cover and promoting drier weather for parts of
the forecast area. Post-frontal CAA northwesterly flow tends to
maintain clouds longer than models suggest, so did hold onto
broken/overcast into the early afternoon before allowing skies
to scatter out from northwest to southeast.

A low end chance for a shower or afternoon storm will still
exist today from the southern coalfields and up the higher
terrain, but severe weather is unlikely in the wake of the cold
front. Dry weather then overtakes the entire forecast area this
evening.

Relief from the heat wave will also be advertised with the
frontal passage today. The approaching high will introduce
lowering dew points/humidity levels this afternoon and evening,
and cooler overnight temperatures late tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM Thursday...

Southwesterly flow will increase across the area this weekend in
response to gradually deepening trough across the midwest. A gradual
uptick in the heat and humidity, along with several waves moving
through the flow and daytime heating will keep the weather unsettled
over the weekend. The bulk of the activity this weekend generally
looks to remain south and east of the Ohio River, although a shower
or storm cannot be ruled out elsewhere. Overall flow over the
weekend will be rather light, and storms will contain brief heavy
downpours. Severe is not anticipated at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1202 PM Thursday...

Increasingly unsettled conditions look to take hold next week as an
upper trough deepens across the central U.S., with moisture
continuing to surge northward into the region. Shortwaves moving
through the flow at times, combined with the effects of diurnal
heating will keep a mention of shower and storm chances in the
forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any storms will contain
heavy downpours, particularly as we get into the middle of next week
and PW values surge above 2 inches again. The good news is despite
the increasing humidity, heat indices don`t look to get too out of
control as convection/cloud cover should keep a lid on temperatures
getting too warm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

A cold frontal passage is underway this morning in the region,
with a slew of fog and stratus festering over our TAF sites.
Ceilings were beginning to lift slightly at the time of writing,
but did opt for a tempo group to open up the valid issuance for
bouncing flight rules. A cluster of showers put ahead of the
front will glide up the southern coalfields and into the higher
terrain over the next few hours.

The front is progged to complete its passage by this afternoon,
with drier weather set to resume across the forecast area by
late in the day into tonight. Skies will be slower to scatter
out throughout the day, but VFR is slated to return for most
sites around 15Z/16Z. However, some lingering VCTS was included
at BKW for a brief time early this afternoon before drying out.

Another decent signal for river valley fog is progged for late
Thursday night into Friday morning.

Light and variable winds this morning will become more
distinguished out of the northwest in the wake of FROPA later
today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with fog/stratus this morning
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible w/ river valley fog Friday morning,
then along the mountains Saturday morning w/ stratus and
showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK