196
FXUS61 KRLX 201730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
130 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances along and southeast of the Ohio River today. More
showers and storms expected Sunday. Looking unsettled next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Saturday...

A moist southwesterly flow will remain in place during the
period, as an upper trough deepens across the lower Ohio Valley/MS
Valley regions. Showers and storms can be expected at times during
the period, from a result of peak heating, and shortwaves moving
through the flow at times. Bulk of activity today should generally
remain south and east of the Ohio River, with a more
northward/westward spread in pops for Sunday as a boundary moves
north into the area. Light flow during the period means overall
showers/storms will be somewhat slow to move, and severe is not
anticipated. Much of the area will be dry overnight, but areas of
fog are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1156 AM Saturday...

A long amplitude upper-level trough and associated closed low over
the Midwest region will deepen over the central and southern CONUS,
Sunday night and Monday. Its position will allow for a series of
H500 vorticity maxima to ride over a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary over our area, enhancing showers and thunderstorms. Severe
weather is not expected at this time, but will watch for heavy
downpours or repetitive showers over the same areas that could
produce minor flooding problems.

Drier weather is expected Monday night. However, conditions remains
unsettled as another cluster of mid-level vorticity moves over our
area and the quasi-stationary front becomes diffuse across our
north on Tuesday. Chance PoPs will increase from south to north
throughout the Tuesday morning, becoming likely for most by
afternoon as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage.
Once again, severe weather is not anticipated at this time and
will have to keep an eye on the heavy downpours and minor
flooding issues.

High humidity at night, and clouds and cooling showers during
the afternoons will produce muggy nights with temperatures from
the mid to upper 60s, but near normal afternoon temperatures,
generally in the mid 80s lowlands, ranging into the upper 60s
northeast mountains for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1156 AM Saturday...

The weather remains active by mid week as another H500 shortwave
drops from the Great Lakes south into the OH valley and WV Wednesday
night and Thursday. This feature will push a cold front from the
northwest that becomes stationary upon its arrival late Thursday into
Friday. Accepted general guidance suggesting likely and categorical
PoPs for this time frame.

With abundant cloudiness and cooling effects from showers, expect
near normal afternoon temperatures, but muggy nights with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage this afternoon, mainly
south/east of the Ohio River. Expect brief MVFR conditions in
vicinity of storms, with VFR expected outside of showers/storms.
After 00Z, will gradually see any lingering showers or storms
dissipate, however, after 06-08Z, areas of fog are possible,
particularly in areas that receive rainfall today, with fog
dissipating after 12Z, with a return to VFR with light surface winds
area wide, although showers and storms will revamp again towards the
end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread shower/storm activity this
afternoon could lead to more common category reductions. Fog
timing and coverage tonight may differ from the forecast, and
will likely be focused in valley locations that get rain today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Patchy IFR fog possible Sunday morning. Brief IFR conditions
are possible each afternoon and evening for Monday through
Wednesday in any heavier thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL