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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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806 FXUS61 KRLX 190602 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 202 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front presses south of the area today. Mainly dry and cooler finish to the work week. Isolated thunderstorms possible this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 545 PM Thursday... The general forecast remains on track. Did have to add in some pops over the next several hours along the higher elevations and mountains to account for some isolated ongoing activity. Took out thunderstorm probability since the trend has been nil. Also, tweaked dewpoints to better align with current observations and trends. As of 100 PM Thursday... Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and intensity, and move south of our area as the cold front continues to move south this evening. Broad high pressure, centered over the Midwest, will move east over the Great Lakes by Friday, taking charge of the local weather conditions tonight and Friday. This high will provide mostly clear skies, near normal temperatures, and light northerly flow becoming calm overnight. Clear skies, calm winds and antecedent precipitation will allow for dense fog to develop along river valleys and areas that received precipitation previously. Any dense fog will quickly dissipate by 8 AM Friday morning. With dewpoints lowering into the 50s tonight, expect near normal temperatures ranging from the upper 50s across the lowlands, into the lower 50s northeast mountains. Pleasant afternoon temperatures are anticipated for Friday with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s across the lowlands, into the lower 70s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1255 PM Thursday... Southwesterly flow will increase across the area this weekend in response to gradually deepening trough across the midwest. A gradual uptick in the heat and humidity, along with several waves moving through the flow and daytime heating will keep the weather unsettled over the weekend. The bulk of the activity this weekend generally looks to remain south and east of the Ohio River, although a shower or storm cannot be ruled out elsewhere. Overall flow over the weekend will be rather light, and storms will contain brief heavy downpours. Severe is not anticipated at this point. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1202 PM Thursday... Increasingly unsettled conditions look to take hold next week as an upper trough deepens across the central U.S., with moisture continuing to surge northward into the region. Shortwaves moving through the flow at times, combined with the effects of diurnal heating will keep a mention of shower and storm chances in the forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any storms will contain heavy downpours, particularly as we get into the middle of next week and PW values surge above 2 inches again. The good news is despite the increasing humidity, heat indices don`t look to get too out of control as convection/cloud cover should keep a lid on temperatures getting too warm. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... Winds remain elevated for some of the area, mainly northern and western parts of the CWA, and dew point depressions remain large in those areas, so fog potential seems low to nil for HTS, PKB, and CKB. Thus, BR and FG was removed from those TAFs. EKN has gone down hard, finally, and should stay down for the rest of the night. Even CRW, with a dew point depression still at 10 degrees as of 06z, seems on the less likely side. But, did put in a tempo group in the few hours before sunrise, just in case. Otherwise, should be VFR the remainder of the period, though we`ll need to watch for isolated showers that may impact BKW or EKN in the afternoon or evening hours. Coverage and confidence are too low to include in prevailing this far out. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of dense fog and associated restrictions may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/19/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Saturday morning with low stratus and showers. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...FK