806
FXUS61 KRLX 190602
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
202 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front presses south of the area today. Mainly dry and
cooler finish to the work week. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 545 PM Thursday...

The general forecast remains on track. Did have to add in some
pops over the next several hours along the higher elevations and
mountains to account for some isolated ongoing activity. Took
out thunderstorm probability since the trend has been nil. Also,
tweaked dewpoints to better align with current observations and
trends.

As of 100 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and intensity,
and move south of our area as the cold front continues to move south
this evening. Broad high pressure, centered over the Midwest, will
move east over the Great Lakes by Friday, taking charge of the local
weather conditions tonight and Friday. This high will provide mostly
clear skies, near normal temperatures, and light northerly flow
becoming calm overnight. Clear skies, calm winds and antecedent
precipitation will allow for dense fog to develop along river
valleys and areas that received precipitation previously. Any
dense fog will quickly dissipate by 8 AM Friday morning.

With dewpoints lowering into the 50s tonight, expect near normal
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s across the lowlands,
into the lower 50s northeast mountains. Pleasant afternoon
temperatures are anticipated for Friday with temperatures
ranging from the mid 80s across the lowlands, into the lower 70s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM Thursday...

Southwesterly flow will increase across the area this weekend in
response to gradually deepening trough across the midwest. A gradual
uptick in the heat and humidity, along with several waves moving
through the flow and daytime heating will keep the weather unsettled
over the weekend. The bulk of the activity this weekend generally
looks to remain south and east of the Ohio River, although a shower
or storm cannot be ruled out elsewhere. Overall flow over the
weekend will be rather light, and storms will contain brief heavy
downpours. Severe is not anticipated at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1202 PM Thursday...

Increasingly unsettled conditions look to take hold next week as an
upper trough deepens across the central U.S., with moisture
continuing to surge northward into the region. Shortwaves moving
through the flow at times, combined with the effects of diurnal
heating will keep a mention of shower and storm chances in the
forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any storms will contain
heavy downpours, particularly as we get into the middle of next week
and PW values surge above 2 inches again. The good news is despite
the increasing humidity, heat indices don`t look to get too out of
control as convection/cloud cover should keep a lid on temperatures
getting too warm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

Winds remain elevated for some of the area, mainly northern and
western parts of the CWA, and dew point depressions remain
large in those areas, so fog potential seems low to nil for
HTS, PKB, and CKB. Thus, BR and FG was removed from those TAFs.
EKN has gone down hard, finally, and should stay down for the
rest of the night. Even CRW, with a dew point depression still
at 10 degrees as of 06z, seems on the less likely side. But,
did put in a tempo group in the few hours before sunrise, just
in case. Otherwise, should be VFR the remainder of the period,
though we`ll need to watch for isolated showers that may impact
BKW or EKN in the afternoon or evening hours. Coverage and
confidence are too low to include in prevailing this far out.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of dense fog and associated restrictions
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Saturday
morning with low stratus and showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK