427
FXUS61 KRLX 191328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
928 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry for most today. Rain chances along and southeast of
the Ohio River for Saturday. Drier for most Sunday, then looking
unsettled next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 921 AM Friday...

River valley fog and low status across the western foothills of
WV will completely dissipate by 10 AM. Satellite imagery shows
only few clouds across the area, providing plenty of sunshine.
Adjusted hourly temperatures a couple of degrees warmer to
better match the warming trend. Rest of forecast remains on
track.

As of 245 AM Friday...

Valley fog has formed in some of the higher elevation valleys,
but light breezes are keeping dew point depressions in lower
elevations large, and holding fog at bay there. As a result, the
expected fog overnight was greatly curtailed, though we could
see some sneak down into the Elk River watershed towards dawn.
Otherwise, expect some fair-weather cumulus to pop up by late
morning as daytime heating gets into gear, with isolated
mountain showers from mid-afternoon onward. A 500mb shortwave
approaching the Central Appalachians tonight could help draw the
low and stationary front a bit further northwest as early as
late tonight. As a result, we do have chance POPs starting to
spill over the mountains and toward the I-79 corridor by
sunrise, but the best opportunity for rain will still be along
and east of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 306 AM Friday...

A deepening trough across the central and southern CONUS brings some
energy and moisture up from the Gulf this weekend. Currently, models
are showing higher likelihood across the mountains and foothills of
the Allegheny Mountains where showers and thunderstorms are
possible.

WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across portions of
our far eastern mountain counties on Saturday. The heaviest rainfall
looks to fall Saturday with a bullseye of near a half an inch of
rainfall for the Webster, Nicholas and Pocahontas being projected by
current QPF output. The heaviest rainfall looks to remain farther
east, outside of our forecast area, but near an inch of rainfall
could be picked up across Raleigh and Fayette Counties.

Higher precipitation chances shift farther east Sunday, with
likely PoPs across southwest Virginia and the southern mountains
of West Virginia. Most locations will be drier than Saturday,
but chances will remain for some diurnal activity.

The weekend will also be humid, with mostly below normal
temperatures expected Saturday and a rise to around or above
normal expected Sunday.

Saturday: Low to mid 80s across the lowlands, mid 60s to upper 70s
in the mountains.

Sunday: Upper 80s and low 90s for the lowlands, 70s to low 80s in
the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 306 AM Friday...

The extended forecast looks active with chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Monday afternoon, increasing to likely each
afternoon there after. The culprit being a broad upper-level
trough digging into the southern CONUS throwing Gulf moisture up
through our area. Precipitable water values look to remain
around 2.00" inches or higher with a deep moisture column aloft.

Excess moisture/cloud cover will help moderate temperatures next
week keeping them about 3-5 degrees below normal. As a result,
heavy rainfall will be likely with showers and thunderstorms
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

Winds remain elevated for some of the area, mainly northern and
western parts of the CWA, and dew point depressions remain
large in those areas, so fog potential seems low to nil for
HTS, PKB, and CKB. Thus, BR and FG was removed from those TAFs.
EKN has gone down hard, finally, and should stay down for the
rest of the night. Even CRW, with a dew point depression still
at 10 degrees as of 06z, seems on the less likely side. But,
did put in a tempo group in the few hours before sunrise, just
in case. Otherwise, should be VFR the remainder of the period,
though we`ll need to watch for isolated showers that may impact
BKW or EKN in the afternoon or evening hours. Coverage and
confidence are too low to include in prevailing this far out.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of dense fog and associated restrictions
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Saturday
morning with low stratus and showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...FK