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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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250 FXUS61 KRLX 191755 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 155 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and mostly dry today. Rain chances along and southeast of the Ohio River for Saturday. Drier for most Sunday, then looking unsettled next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 154 PM Friday... Any afternoon showers and storms that manage to develop over the mountains this afternoon will dissipate around sunset. A broad surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and the OH valley tonight providing mostly dry weather. However, a deepening trough across central and southern US will lift a shortwave over the area later tonight. This shortwave, and its associated vorticity cluster will ride along a frontal boundary just east of the Appalachians, to enhance convection, more likely over the mountains late overnight tonight into Saturday morning. The closer the front gets to our eastern mountains, the further west shower and storms could develop over our CWA Saturday afternoon and evening. Therefore, have chance PoPs tonight, becoming likely Saturday afternoon and evening over the eastern mountains. Tonight, temperatures will generally be from the low to mid 60s. A dewpoint gradient will keep dewpoints in the mid 60s east of the OH River, but in the mid 50s west of the OH River. For Saturday, near normal afternoon temperatures expected, generally in the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1155 AM Friday... Southwesterly flow will increase across the area Sunday into Monday in response to gradually deepening trough across the midwest. A gradual uptick in the temperatures and humidity, along with several waves moving through the flow and daytime heating will keep the weather unsettled. The bulk of the activity Sunday generally looks to remain south and east of the Ohio River, with increased areal coverage on Monday. Overall flow will be rather light, and storms will contain brief heavy downpours. Severe is not anticipated at this point. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1155 AM Friday... Increasingly unsettled conditions look to take hold next week as southwesterly flow continues to remain in place, and moisture continues to surge northward into the region. Shortwaves moving through the flow at times, combined with the effects of diurnal heating will keep a mention of shower and storm chances in the forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any storms will contain heavy downpours, particularly as we get into the middle of next week and PW values surge above 2 inches again. The good news is despite the increasing humidity, heat indices don`t look to get too out of control as convection/cloud cover should keep a lid on temperatures getting too warm. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 154 PM Friday... A broad surface high pressure will keep widespread VFR condition this afternoon and evening. The exception will be for brief periods of MVFR/IFR under isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain. Coverage and confidence are too low to include in TAF for now. Although convection should weaken around sunset, additional shower or storms will be possible overnight tonight as an upper level disturbance lifts north along the eastern mountains. Will code VCSH at BKW and EKN with this activity. MVFR ceilings due to low status may develop along the western foothills of WV overnight tonight, but confidence runs low attm. Guidance suggests showers may continue over the weekend as additional southern stream shortwaves lift north along the Appalachian. Expect shower and storms, more likely over the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening Saturday and Sunday. Brief periods of IFR conditions will be possible under stronger showers or storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of showers and storms and associated restrictions may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Sunday under showers and low stratus. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ