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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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166 FXUS61 KRLX 200236 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1036 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and mostly dry today. Rain chances along and southeast of the Ohio River for Saturday. Drier for most Sunday, then looking unsettled next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1025 PM Friday... No changes were needed to the forecast as it remains on track. As of 500 PM Friday... The general forecast remains in tact. Only had to update dewpoints to align them better with current observations and trends. Nudged wind slightly lower as the valleys should decouple tonight. The latest ensemble guidance was blended with the forecast to add or remove categorical POPs and to account for any new dramatic changes that may have occurred. As of 154 PM Friday... Any afternoon showers and storms that manage to develop over the mountains this afternoon will dissipate around sunset. A broad surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and the OH valley tonight providing mostly dry weather. However, a deepening trough across central and southern US will lift a shortwave over the area later tonight. This shortwave, and its associated vorticity cluster will ride along a frontal boundary just east of the Appalachians, to enhance convection, more likely over the mountains late overnight tonight into Saturday morning. The closer the front gets to our eastern mountains, the further west shower and storms could develop over our CWA Saturday afternoon and evening. Therefore, have chance PoPs tonight, becoming likely Saturday afternoon and evening over the eastern mountains. Tonight, temperatures will generally be from the low to mid 60s. A dewpoint gradient will keep dewpoints in the mid 60s east of the OH River, but in the mid 50s west of the OH River. For Saturday, near normal afternoon temperatures expected, generally in the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1155 AM Friday... Southwesterly flow will increase across the area Sunday into Monday in response to gradually deepening trough across the midwest. A gradual uptick in the temperatures and humidity, along with several waves moving through the flow and daytime heating will keep the weather unsettled. The bulk of the activity Sunday generally looks to remain south and east of the Ohio River, with increased areal coverage on Monday. Overall flow will be rather light, and storms will contain brief heavy downpours. Severe is not anticipated at this point. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1155 AM Friday... Increasingly unsettled conditions look to take hold next week as southwesterly flow continues to remain in place, and moisture continues to surge northward into the region. Shortwaves moving through the flow at times, combined with the effects of diurnal heating will keep a mention of shower and storm chances in the forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any storms will contain heavy downpours, particularly as we get into the middle of next week and PW values surge above 2 inches again. The good news is despite the increasing humidity, heat indices don`t look to get too out of control as convection/cloud cover should keep a lid on temperatures getting too warm. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 715 PM Friday... VFR going into tonight with valley fog development on the table for EKN and possibly CRW. The rest of the sites should have enough surface flow to stay out of it. Hi-res models struggle with anything developing overnight as far as rain, but there should be some low clouds along the mountain sites, however nothing in the way of widespread MVFR until Saturday afternoon when rain chances rise across BKW along with lower CIGs (MVFR). FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CRW may fog more than anticipated. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/20/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Sunday under showers and low stratus. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JZ