936
FNUS75 KRIW 022127
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Horse Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Riverton WY
327 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on July 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

Thursday will be marked by cooler and wetter conditions. By 0900
Thursday morning, shower and wet thunderstorm chances will begin to
increase with 50 to 70% chances of precipitation and wetting rain by
1400 Thursday afternoon. With stronger thunderstorms, gusty winds
and locally heavy rain will be the main concerns. Showers and
thunderstorms will persist through around 2000, tapering off quickly
after sunset.

Winds will generally prevail from the west, but remain less than 20
mph. Gusts 20 to 25 mph will be possible during the afternoon, with
locally stronger gusts with any stronger storms. Light
downslope/downvalley flows can be expected overnight, similar to
what has occurred nightly over the past several nights.

Friday will see similar wetter conditions with similar temperatures
to Thursday. The bulk of the moisture will be to the north, but 40
to 60% chances of storms will occur through much of the afternoon
and evening, with similar timing to Thursday.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain and
 thunderstorm chances will increase through the
late morning, with numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected after 1200.
CWR.................9 percent increasing to 33 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Chance of thunder...37 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until 1000, then west 7 to 8 mph
                    with gusts to around 14 mph until 1700, then
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......West 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL until 1000, then increasing through
 the morning, then 5500 ft AGL until 1400, then
                    3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, increasing to good in the
                    afternoon until 1400, then returning to poor.


.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Shower and
thunderstorm chances decreasing quickly after
2000.
CWR.................17 percent decreasing to 1 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...27 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Ridgetop wind.......West 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL until 2000, then 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 13 mph until 1900, then north 10 to
                    12 mph until 2100, then west 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.


.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chances of
rain showers and thunderstorms increasing
through the morning. Most likely chances
after 1200.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 19 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Chance of thunder...45 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until 1100, then southwest 7 to 10
                    mph with gusts to around 18 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL until 0800, increasing through
the morning, then 9500 ft AGL until 1400,
                    then 7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 18 mph until 1200, then southwest 21
                    to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800 increasing to excellent in
the afternoon after 1100.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds around 8 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Light
winds.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Light
winds.

$$
Forecaster...Hensley
Requested by...Rebecca Hird
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516836.4/RIW
.DELDT 07/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rhird@blm.gov,nws.riverton@noaa.gov