Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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114 FXUS65 KRIW 101830 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1230 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues today with some isolated storms across the Winds and off the Absarokas. - Hottest temperatures to come Thursday through Sunday. - More seasonable with increasing precipitation chances early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 IR currently depicts mainly clear skies under an upper level high centered to the southwest. Some cooling cloud tops associated with a couple isolated weak storms over the Winds and off the Absarokas extending to the Owl Creeks throughout the afternoon. No impacts are expected at this time. Otherwise, warming trend continues today with a slight breeze at some locations 10-20 mph with no wind and limited fire weather threats going forward despite the increasing temperatures and lowering relative humidity values. The big story will be with the building ridge to the west with increasing convergence aloft fueling the weak upper level flow pattern and pulling up the desert heat. Near record heat is expected with some locations across the Wind River and Bighorn Basins possibly breaking some high temperature records. Models are still on track with this with H7 temperatures pushing into the low 20s C. 100 degree temperatures expected east of the Divide and 90s to the west through Sunday. As the bridge weakens and shifts east late weekend, a weak trough looks to skirt to the north that will bring a "reprieve" to the heat becoming more seasonable. Models are still not in great agreement on precipitation but higher elevations and northern counties should have the best chances for early to mid next week. Otherwise, longer term outlooks continue to have average precipitation and above average temperatures that even though it is July, it still out of the norm being this warm. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Aviation weather is expected to be benign for western and central Wyoming terminals over the next 24 hours. Afternoon breezes of 10 to 15 kt will be common, decreasing to light and variable for many sites overnight. Any isolated thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to remain over the high terrain, with KCOD, KRIW, and KPNA having a very small chance (less than 10%) of a rouge thunderstorm outflow causing brief gusty winds. Mostly sunny skies are forecast, with cloud bases above 12k ft. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 10 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ004>006-010-011-017-018-020. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lowe AVIATION...VandenBoogart