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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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685 FXUS65 KRIW 180850 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 250 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The copy paste weather pattern continues with seasonal temperatures and afternoon showers and thunderstorms. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are looking possible for Friday and Saturday with many seeing chances for some much needed rain. - Warmer and drier weather looks to move into the region for the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Heading into the end of the week it may start to feel like each day is being copied and pasted for many, as each day this week has seen very similar weather. Today will continue that trend as temperatures remain seasonable with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 80s across most of the state. Parts of the Bighorn Basin may see warmer temperatures near the mid 90s. Slightly hazy skies are expected to linger as well due to nearby wildfire smoke being blown into the region. High pressure continues to shift west today, gradually making its way toward the Desert Southwest. This high looks to stay south of the region but will continue to funnel moisture into the area, greatly influencing daily diurnal convection. PWAT values are forecast to hover around 0.75" for today but some models hint at a more sufficient push of moisture for Friday and Saturday. At the same time, this flow will continue to push wildfire smoke in from the PACNW over the Cowboy State. While the concentration of smoke is not expected to create impacts, hazy skies are expected to continue through the remainder of the week. Today, convection looks to be widely scattered across the state, with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving later in the afternoon/evening. This is largely due to a weak shortwave that will clip the northern border of the CWA. Overall, chances for precipitation today range from 15- 40% with the best chances being in the northern half of the state. Gusty outflows of 40+ mph will continue to be possible from these storms, based off dewpoint depressions. As mentioned before Friday and Saturday will see a more prolific surge of moisture move into the state. PWAT values currently look to near 1" especially east of the Divide during this time. Temperatures are expected to be nearly identical to today with highs in the mid to upper 80s with warmer values in parts of the Bighorn Basin. Diurnal convection will again develop both days with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms possible. There looks to be two main concerns from developing storms for both of these days. The first is strong gusty outflow winds as storms begin developing with gusts of 40+ mph possible. The other concern will be brief periods of heavy rain due to the supple moisture being advected into the region along with the relatively slow storm motion. Overall, precipitation chances currently sit around (20-40%) for much of the CWA on both Friday and Saturday. If this does actually come to fruition many areas could see some much needed rainfall, so fingers will remain crossed. The end of the weekend will see a gradual shift in the weather pattern. Warm and dry weather is looking more likely as a elongated ridge sets up to our west and slowly pushes east. This would favor warmer and drier weather for the start of next week as the ridge gradually moves east. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are still possible but are looking more unlikely and isolated in nature compared to the past few days. Above normal temperatures are possible by the middle of next week as the ridge axis finally pushes across the region. A lot of uncertainty remains for the upcoming week, as models hint at a potent low moving into the PACNW. This disturbance looks to possibly usher in another weather pattern with a greater chance for cooler and wetter weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions will persist overnight with gradually clearing skies, in terms of clouds, though smoky skies will remain into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms return to the entire forecast area Thursday afternoon, with a 20-30 percent chance at each site. Again, the primary threats are gusty outflow winds of 30-40 kts and brief heavy rain. Brief MVFR conditions may occur under the storms. Showers will linger in the evening around KCOD and KCPR. Skies will then stay partly cloudy through the rest of the TAF period. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...McDonald/LaVoie