Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
966 FXUS65 KREV 060848 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 148 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Prolonged heat wave continues to bear down on the Sierra and western Nevada through next week. Plan on major heat risk impacts, even in the mountains. Please take this one seriously! * Fire concerns remain with hot temperatures, very dry air and any remaining holiday weekend activities. Localized haze is also possible from ongoing California wildfires. * Isolated afternoon thunderstorm chances may return next week with the best chances seen on next Friday, but low confidence continues at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Main theme heading into this weekend and next week: Hot and dry. We`re currently under the influence of a high pressure system that doesn`t seem like it`ll budge for the next several days. Because of this, temperatures will be consistently hot across the region from today all through next week. So, how hot are we talking? Well, high temperatures across W NV valleys and NE CA won`t get below 100 degrees until next weekend, and communities in the Sierra such as Truckee and South Lake Tahoe will be stuck in the low-mid 90`s. And unfortunately, there won`t be much relief overnight either. Overnight lows will only get down to around 70 across western NV and upper 50`s in the Sierra. To highlight and emphasize the moderate to major HeatRisk across the region, the Excessive Heat Warning for western NV and the Heat Advisory for the CA portion of the CWA continues from Saturday through Wednesday. Please see the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory products for more detailed information on these upcoming heat hazards. It is recommended to take precautions during this time such as limiting outdoor activity, taking breaks in a cool area, staying hydrated, and checking in on neighbors and relatives that may be more susceptible to heat related illness. For more heat safety tips, please visit weather.gov/safety/heat. Heat aside, our friendly zephyr breeze will be back each afternoon kicking up winds out of the west at 15-20 mph. Starting Sunday afternoon ensembles are showing a low chance (5%) of some showers in southern Mono county along the Sierra crest through early next week. There may continue to be some haziness across the region this weekend from the wind blowing CA wildfire smoke over the Sierra. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue at all REV TAF sites again today and are expected going into the weekend. Typical afternoon breezes out of the west are also in the forecast across the region. Well above normal temperatures through the weekend and into next week still may produce periods of density altitude concerns across all TAF sites in the Sierra and western NV. -078/Justin && .FIRE WEATHER... No changes made from the previous fire weather forecast. High confidence for well above normal temperatures, low daytime relative humidity values, and dry conditions persisting through next week. Winds will remain light this weekend with only late afternoon breezes up to 20 mph possible. As for next week, our more typical afternoon/evening breezes may return with gusts in the 30 mph range as models show the upper air ridge shifting slightly eastward. Fire concerns will remain with the hot temperatures and very dry conditions as well as any remaining holiday weekend activities. There are also some very slight (<5%) chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Sunday afternoon and going into the beginning of next week. -078/Justin && .CLIMATE... Record High and Warm Low Temperatures for July 6th-9th at Reno-Tahoe International Airport (KRNO) -------------------------------------------------------------------- Date Forecast(High/Low) Record High(Year) Record Warm Low(Year) ------ ----------------- ---------------- -------------------- July 6 106/68101F (2021+) 71F (2007) July 7 106/70102F (2014) 68F (2004++) July 8 106/71104F (2017) 71F (2014) July 9 105/69104F (2021) 69F (2021) + denotes record also seen in 2014 ++ denotes record also seen in 2001 Current record for consecutive days of 100F or greater at KRNO is 10 days, set in July 2021 and July 2005. The record for consecutive days of 105 or greater is only 2 days, which has occurred 6 times in climate history, most recently July 2023. Both of these have the potential to be broken with this heatwave. && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ002. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-003>005. CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ070>073. && $$