702
FXUS62 KRAH 040424
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1225 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday. An area
of low pressure off the Southeast coast could move into the area
Sunday, bringing a return to wet weather Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 825 PM Thursday...

Clear skies expected overnight.

Satellite and radar data indicate the skies were now mostly clear.
The chance of any showers/storms is less than 5 percent. Overnight
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected, with some mid 60s in
the rural areas of the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

* Mostly quiet weather with above normal highs resulting in heat
  indices in the 90s. Greatest storm chances will be across the
  Coastal Plain into the Sandhills.

A negatively-tilted trough axis positioned over the Northeast Fri
morning with a mid-level ridge building into the Midwest will direct
mainly northerly flow aloft over central NC. Confluence on the
backside of the trough will assist surface high pressure to spill
over the northern Mid-Atlantic through Sat evening. This should
direct northeasterly flow down through central NC and with diurnal
mixing should help mix dew points into the 60s. Some lingering dew
points in the upper 60s to low 70s will contribute to moderate
instability Fri afternoon/evening and the development of isolated
showers/storms. These will likely be hit-or-miss variety, but some
guidance suggest some clustering possible which would increase the
potential coverage. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry.

It is important to note that although temperatures will only be
slightly above normal during the afternoon hours, this will be
temperatures in the shade. Temperatures in the direct sunlight will
feel noticeably worse. Combined with heat index of mid/upper 90s,
heat related illness will still be possible especially among heat-
sensitive individuals and anyone who spends prolonged periods of
time in direct sunlight without adequate hydration. Temperatures
should quickly cool into the upper 70s to around 80 by sunset and
settle in the mid 60s to low 70s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

* Mostly dry conditions expected Saturday, with isolated to
  scattered showers/storms possible in the southeast.

* A tropical development is possible in the Atlantic this weekend.
  Regardless of development, rain chances will increase Sunday and
  Monday.

* Afternoon/diurnal shower chances return Tuesday through Thursday.

Saturday, the region will stay under the influence of high pressure
and upper level ridging. This should keep the day mostly dry.
However, showers and embedded storms may be possible in the
southeast portions of the CWA Saturday evening if moisture is faster
to return to the region ahead of the potential tropical system that
may develop off the coast. This can be seen in the ECMWF, which
brings moisture into the region faster than other models. Regardless
of if a tropical system is able to develop, rain chances will
increase Sunday and Monday due to this potential tropical system and
increased moisture. Currently the only hazards expected locally with
this system are locally heavy rain and a few stronger storms.
Tuesday through Thursday, we return to a period of diurnally induced
showers and storms possible each afternoon and evening.

Temperatures should be within 5 degrees of normal each day in the
long term. Saturday should have maximum temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s. Sunday should cool down slightly, into the upper
80s, due to increased cloud cover and rain chances. Monday through
Thursday should warm into the low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices
may return to the low 100s Tuesday through Thursday. Lows should
generally be in the upper 60s to low-to-mid 70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Friday...

Largely VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The one
exception is at RWI, where lingering moisture could favor fog prior
to 12z. The past few hours of observations have ranged from 1 to 3
miles. Confidence is too low to include LIFR, but kept a mention of
IFR potential. Some gusts to 15-18 kt are possible today from the
NE. Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm near FAY today, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

After 06Z Saturday: Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through Sat, with a return to diurnally maximized showers/storms Sun
into early next week with a potential tropical or subtropical low
pressure system.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Badgett/Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Kren