947
FXUS62 KRAH 122333
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
730 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low pressure will ripple along a quasi-stationary front
over the Piedmont through tonight. The front will weaken and
dissipate over the region this weekend.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 730 PM Friday...

Latest radar scans showing a few MCVs moving over the area. The main
one could be seen across over the Northern Piedmont swirling over
Vance, Warren and Franklin counties. The bulk of the rain is over
the Coastal Plain and Northeastern Piedmont. While areas are
expected to briefly dry out, another round of showers and storms are
expected to develop later tonight.  The heavy rain threat and
flooding threats will continue into the overnight hours. Thus, the
Flood Watch for most of NC will not be cancelled early. Latest model
guidance is showing the best chance for redevelopment anywhere along
and east of the US1 corridor. Lingering showers overnight should be
pushing near the coast by sunrise as dry air moves into the region.
Lows overnight will range from low to mid 70s.

As of 218 PM Friday...

* Flood Watch remains in effect for all but the far western Piedmont
  counties until midnight tonight
* Potential exits for localized 4+ inches of rainfall over portions
  of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain

Sfc analysis this afternoon shows the sfc boundary stretching from
the southern Piedmont northeast through the northern Coastal Plain.
This area continues to see the strongest convection and rain rates.
A MCV was observed spinning over the Sandhills/central Piedmont when
looping radar scans. This feature, along with the instability axis
east of the boundary will continue to shift northeast over time
through this evening.

Latest high-res ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS/WoFS) all suggest the
possibility of higher rainfall rates falling first over the
southern/central Piedmont the next few hours, before pivoting up
into the northern Coastal Plain later this evening. There is a
signal for localized amounts as high as 5 inches in these areas.
Given the high rain rates thus far, the continued highly anomalous
moisture flux, and some reports of flooding, will continue the Flood
Watch through midnight tonight.

The bulk of the rain will pull north overnight tonight, but latest
runs of the HRRR do maintain the potential for some linger
showers/storms over our central/northern Piedmont.  Overall though,
most of the rain should be north of our area through sunrise
tomorrow.

Overnight lows will remain in the mid 70s with patchy fog possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 218 PM Friday...

While the sfc/mid-level low will have pulled bulk of the
precipitation north of our area by 12Z Saturday, anomalous moisture
will linger especially along and east of US-1.  As such, additional
showers and a few storms will likely develop Saturday afternoon
along the dissipating frontal boundary. Highest chances will focus
further east.  Flash flooding potential should be limited Saturday,
but we are still outlooked in a Marginal ERO from WPC across eastern
areas. FFG should be a bit lower given the heavy rain on Friday, and
thus urban areas could be susceptible to flash flooding. Although,
overall coverage should be more limited compared to Friday.

Temperatures will rise back into the lower to mid 90s, peaking
across the far southwestern Piedmont.  Dew points will likely max in
the 70s again Saturday afternoon (highest to the east). However,
some fleeting wnwly flow aloft may introduce a bit of mixing
(especially out west where it will be hottest). Thus, heat indices
should stay below advisory criteria.

Warm overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
As of 252 PM Friday...

...Dangerous Heat Returns Sunday Through the Middle Part of Next
Week...

...Pattern change with trough developing to our west (Ohio Valley
into the TN Valley) late week into next weekend brings threat of a
stalling front and heavy rain/cooling temperatures...

The main weather story will be the return of dangerous heat
beginning Sunday and peaking Monday and Tuesday. Heights continue to
rise Monday and Tuesday. The low level flow is forecast to be more
westerly. Heat Advisory criteria looks likely to be met in the
southern and eastern areas where index values should reach and
exceed 105 Sunday and Monday even with some mixing out of the dew
points in the afternoon, then possibly Excessive Heat Warning
criteria of 110 on Tuesday and Wednesday as the heat wave peaks.
Actual highs should reach the mid 90s to lower 100s Monday,
Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. Lows in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Both could challenge daily records.

There is only a small chance of PM storms Monday and Tuesday.
The chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms returns
Wednesday especially in the west. All areas have a good chance to
likely Thursday and Friday as a cold front will approach from the
NW. Highs will "cool" into the lower to mid 90s Thursday and 80s by
Friday.

A potential wet period with less heat late next week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 705 PM Friday...

TAF period: While most terminals are reporting VFR conditions around
00Z, widespread ceiling restrictions will develop overnight. While
RWI has a narrow window for dropping to LIFR ceilings, there is high
confidence in all other terminals dropping to 500 ft ceilings or
lower. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms has dropped a little
bit more quickly than anticipated, and a VCSH/VCTS mention should be
enough at most sites. The low ceilings should begin to lift shortly
after sunrise Saturday, and all sites should return to VFR
conditions by Saturday afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms will
return to RDU/FAY/RWI Saturday afternoon.

Outlook: Morning low stratus and/or fog will be possible again Sun
morning mainly at RWI and FAY, followed by primarily hotter and
mainly dry, VFR conditions until the next front settles into the
region late Wed through Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 15:
KGSO: 97/1974
KRDU: 99/1997

July 16:
KGSO: 99/1915
KRDU: 101/1887
KFAY: 103/1937


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 12:
KGSO: 76/2011
KRDU: 78/2011
KFAY: 80/1935

July 13:
KGSO: 75/2017
KRDU: 78/2017
KFAY: 78/2017

July 14:
KGSO: 77/1981
KRDU: 77/2017
KFAY: 80/2017

July 15:
KGSO: 74/2019
KRDU: 76/1992
KFAY: 78/2015

July 16:
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 78/1992

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday evening for
NCZ007>011-022>028-039>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA/Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...Green/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH