851
FXUS62 KRAH 130715
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low pressure will ripple along a quasi-stationary front
over the Piedmont through tonight. The front will weaken and
dissipate over the region this weekend.

&&


.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

The primary convective rain band(s) which has been closed aligned to
the mid-level vorticity shear axis will continue to push east and
will exit the the far eastern/coastal plain counties over the next
few hours. Through daybreak, we`ll continue to see some patchy
drizzle within the lingering low-level stratus layer. Will also
likely see some fog, potentially dense across the northern Piedmont,
where the cloud layer is shallower.

Thereafter, the slowly decaying frontal zone will oscillate over
central NC through tonight. Meanwhile, the 850-700mb trough and
accompanying axis of anomalously high moisture/PWATS will gradually
shift eastward through the day. Following an early day lull, diurnal
destablization should lead to scattered re-development of showers
and storms during the afternoon and evening, mainly from the
Triangle eastward. Highs ranging from upper 80s NE to lower 90s
elsewhere. The moist/humid dewpoint air in the lower to mid 70s east
of the front will result in heat indices in the upper 90s to around
100 from the Triangle eastward.

Convection will dissipate this evening, leaving dry conditions
overnight. Lows in the lower/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

will be issued shortly.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
As of 252 PM Friday...

...Dangerous Heat Returns Sunday Through the Middle Part of Next
Week...

...Pattern change with trough developing to our west (Ohio Valley
into the TN Valley) late week into next weekend brings threat of a
stalling front and heavy rain/cooling temperatures...

The main weather story will be the return of dangerous heat
beginning Sunday and peaking Monday and Tuesday. Heights continue to
rise Monday and Tuesday. The low level flow is forecast to be more
westerly. Heat Advisory criteria looks likely to be met in the
southern and eastern areas where index values should reach and
exceed 105 Sunday and Monday even with some mixing out of the dew
points in the afternoon, then possibly Excessive Heat Warning
criteria of 110 on Tuesday and Wednesday as the heat wave peaks.
Actual highs should reach the mid 90s to lower 100s Monday,
Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. Lows in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Both could challenge daily records.

There is only a small chance of PM storms Monday and Tuesday.
The chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms returns
Wednesday especially in the west. All areas have a good chance to
likely Thursday and Friday as a cold front will approach from the
NW. Highs will "cool" into the lower to mid 90s Thursday and 80s by
Friday.

A potential wet period with less heat late next week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

TAF period: Widespread LIFR to IFR flight restrictions will
persist through daybreak. Any VSBY restrictions should improve
rather quickly after sunrise. However, ceilings will be
slower to improve, lifting to MVFR during the mid to late morning and
then VFR by the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected
to re-develop during the afternoon from KRDU eastward. However, given
limited coverage will only include VCSH at this time.

Outlook: Morning low stratus and/or fog will be possible again Sun
morning mainly at RWI and FAY, followed by primarily hotter and
mainly dry, VFR conditions until the next front settles into the
region late Wed through Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 15:
KGSO: 97/1974
KRDU: 99/1997

July 16:
KGSO: 99/1915
KRDU: 101/1887
KFAY: 103/1937


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 12:
KGSO: 76/2011
KRDU: 78/2011
KFAY: 80/1935

July 13:
KGSO: 75/2017
KRDU: 78/2017
KFAY: 78/2017

July 14:
KGSO: 77/1981
KRDU: 77/2017
KFAY: 80/2017

July 15:
KGSO: 74/2019
KRDU: 76/1992
KFAY: 78/2015

July 16:
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 78/1992

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...CBL/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH