411
FXUS62 KRAH 260603
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic
through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward
Bermuda over the weekend. This will result in a continuation of
dangerously hot weather across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 905 PM Wednesday...

Nearly all of the forecast area is clear of thunderstorms with the
activity having moved to the south. Despite the forecast area being
clear of thunderstorms, have decided to hold onto the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch for now primarily because of large amounts of
instability along the Virginia-North Carolina border. There was
minimal coverage of showers/thunderstorms across that area earlier,
the 00Z Greensboro sounding shows 4500 J/kg of CAPE, and the SPC
mesoanalysis page shows large amounts of instability across the
northern tier counties. With a few strengthening thunderstorms
across southern Virginia and an outflow boundary from previous
storms moving north across North Carolina towards Virginia, the
concern is that this could result in another round of thunderstorms
over the next few hours. With the amount of instability present,
there would certainly be potential for those thunderstorms to become
severe. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 226 PM Wednesday...

Heat Advisory for all the region Thursday 11 AM through 700 PM
Thursday.

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

The only significant change to this period was to expand the Heat
Advisory to include all of central North Carolina Thursday. The
convection this evening and what is expected on Thursday will temper
the heat a little, but highs should still reach the mid to upper 90s
with heat indices of 102 to 109 NW to south and urban areas. Thus,
advisory level heat will continue.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of additional pulse type
severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening. The overall storms
should be scattered with a more localized damaging wind threat.

The chance of storms will decrease by late Thursday evening with the
loss of heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

* Little change in the stagnant/weak-flow regime and above normal
  temps through Mon, yielding daily late-day storm chances, highest
  across the NW.

* Convection chances increase by Tue, lasting into Wed when temps
  will trend down closer to normal.

During this period, as weak surface troughing holds over the NC
Piedmont, the baggy mid-upper low over the Southeast states and
Carolinas will move little through the weekend, meandering over the
S Appalachians before weakening further to a broad weak trough by
Mon. While we`ll no doubt see small day-over-day changes in the
sensible weather, given the weak pressure patterns through a deep
layer, poor mid level flow, and the lack of any significant weather
systems over much of this period, will follow persistence for the
forecast, with temps generally staying above normal in the low-mid
90s, as low level thicknesses stay about 5-10 m above normal each
day. Expect late-day scattered storms focused over our N and W areas
as terrain convection drifts into the area. With at least moderate
CAPE daily Sat-Mon but very weak bulk shear, we should see pulse-
type storm clusters with a low threat for organized severe storms.
With humidity still elevated, both forecast heat indices and the
experimental Heat Risk suggest a continued low-end heat-health risk,
mainly for those without adequate cooling and those exerting
themselves outdoors, but overall the most intense heat will have
subsided. By Tue into Wed, a broad northern stream trough will shift
through ON/QC and Great Lakes into the Northeast, leading to an
increase in mid level flow over the Mid Atlantic region as a surface
cold front gradually approaches from the NW with a preceding
sharpening of the Piedmont trough. This iimproving flow aloft along
with a prefrontal increase in PW will prompt greater and earlier
storm coverage Tue/Wed, with more cloudiness. Expect highs to trend
closer to normal, 90-95 Tue and around 90 Wed. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Ongoing convection impacting nrn terminals
should continue for the first couple/few hours of the TAF period,
accompanied by the usual restrictions. Outside of convection, winds
should be generally light through daybreak, increasing a couple/few
kts during the day and becoming mainly sly. While most of the period
should be VFR, MVFR cigs could again develop, especially where rain
has occurred today, however confidence remains low so have left
mention out at this time. Any restrictions that materialize should
clear up after daybreak. Showers/storms expected again in the west
this aft/eve, with more isolated coverage east.

Outlook: There will be the chance for diurnally driven convection
and early morning fog/low stratus through the weekend and into early
next week. Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)
June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)
June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)
June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)
June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)
June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)
June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)
June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)
June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH