090
FXUS62 KRAH 190704
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The front that moved into the region yesterday will remain nearly
stationary across the state through the weekend, resulting in
unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 159 AM Friday...

Water vapor imagery this morning depicted an upper trough axis
centered over New England. This feature continues to extend swly
flow down the east coast and over central NC this morning.

At the sfc, latest analysis depicted a cold front (noted by a dew
point gradient of mid to upper 60s west; lower to mid 70s east)
draped across the far southwestern NC mountains northeast through
the NC foothills region. A few remnant showers and an isolated storm
will be possible the next few hours, but overall lack of upper
forcing should limit overall coverage this morning. Patchy fog will
persist ahead of the boundary, likely maximizing across the south
where the heaviest rain fell. Any residual fog should lift by early
to mid morning.

As we progress into the afternoon period, scattered diurnal showers
and storms will likely develop. Overall, expect coverage to be less
compared to Thursday and largely confined to where the boundary
settles.  Most high-res guidance suggests the boundary will slowly
trudge through the Sandhills/Coastal Plain region early this
afternoon, before possibly sagging south of our area later today. As
such, expecting the best chances for showers/storms in these areas.
Shear today will be weaker compared to yesterday, and as such severe
weather chances today are near-zero. However, can`t rule out a gusty
downdraft or two, but overall, not expecting much chance for severe
storms. Given slower mean-layer cloud speeds, however, slower storm
motions today could pose a risk for isolated flash flooding in urban
areas.

Coverage should wane this evening. However, models are hinting at a
strong mid-level impulse migrating north from the deep south later
tonight. As such, CAMs are hinting at an uptick in rain chances
early Saturday morning, particularly across the south and west where
the sfc boundary will likely have lifted.

Temperatures today should max in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight
lows will dip into the lower 70s. Patchy fog will be possible again
primarily across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 159 AM Friday...

Aloft, a strong short-wave will eject through the Mid-
Atlantic/northeast through Saturday night. An associated strong mid-
level impulse will ride along the Appalachians inducing convection
across our area Saturday. Showers and storms will likely be ongoing
early Saturday morning as the impulse moves northeast over our
western areas.  Guidance suggests the sfc front will remain stalled
across our western to northern Piedmont, which should provide
additional sfc forcing for afternoon showers/storms.  As the short-
wave ejects eastward, increasing mid-level flow will induce upwards
of 25 to 35 kts of shear across the northern half of our CWA.  As
such, a few organized/stronger storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening, with isolated damaging wind gusts the biggest
concern.  Similar to recent days, given the persistent, anomalously
moist airmass, as well as the potential for west-east training
cells, isolated flash flooding will be possible Saturday.

Highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 in the south. Overnight
lows in the lower to mid 70s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

There is minimal change to the long term forecast. A longwave trough
will extend from Quebec south into the Gulf of Mexico, and warm,
moist advection will persist across much of the eastern United
States. Will continue with likely pops during this time period. In
addition, heavy rainfall rates means that isolated flash flooding
will continue to be a threat across the entire area despite the area
being in a drought. Highs should remain near climatology in the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 117 AM Friday...

Aviation conditions are expected to further deteriorate this morning
as MVFR/IFR (and possible fleeting LIFR) stratus develop across most
of central NC.  Confidence in sub-VFR ceilings is highest at
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. KINT/KGSO may see a bit more inconsistent sub-VFR
ceilings through sunrise.  Otherwise, a few lingering
showers/isolated storms should continue to dissipate with time this
morning. Any lingering stratus should rise to VFR by mid to late
morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers/storms are then
likely this afternoon, with the best chances at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI.
While these showers/storms will wane this evening, additional
showers and storms will be possible late tonight as an upper wave
approaches from the south.

Beyond 06Z Saturday: Showers and storms will continue into this
weekend as a front stalls over the area.  Early morning fog and
stratus will be possible each day as well.  The wet pattern will
continue into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023

July 20: KGSO: 75/2019 KRDU: 76/2020

July 21: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/1932 KFAY: 80/2017

July 22: KRDU: 78/2011

July 23: KRDU: 78/2011

July 24: KRDU: 79/2011 KFAY: 79/1945

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Luchetti
CLIMATE...RAH