557
FXUS62 KRAH 061633
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1233 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Chantal will weaken to a remnant low as it
drifts northeastward through central North Carolina this afternoon
through tonight. This low will exit to our northeast early Monday,
leaving behind a weak surface trough through central North Carolina
and above normal temperatures over our area through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...

* Flood Watch in effect for all but the northeast zones of central NC

* Remnants of Chantal will bring a low-end tornado threat for the
  Sandhills into the Central Coastal Plain south of US-1

A Flood Watch was hoisted for all but the northeast zones of central
NC. The remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal will bring widespread
showers and embedded storms to most of central NC through early Mon
with highs this afternoon mainly in the 80s. Chantal as of 2 am was
about 85 miles southwest of Wilmington, NC, with maximum sustained
winds of 50 kt (60 mph) and 1002 mb. Satellite and radar do depict
the system is starting to wrap up and become more defined. The
latest NHC track takes the system to the NW before moving into the
central NC Sandhills and weakening as a depression as it tracks ENE
into the northern Coastal Plain by Mon morning.

While the model guidance has come into much better agreement with
regards to Chantal`s track and QPF footprint, there is still some
uncertainty. Nevertheless, there was enough confidence to go with a
Flood Watch for most of the area. In discussions with WPC with
respect to left/right track solutions, the anticipated QPF footprint
did not change much from the day shift Sat. If anything, the system
may be moving a bit faster overall. The highest QPF, based on a
suite of model guidance, including the CAMs/HREF and which matches
well with the ECMWF AIFS model, shows the highest totals from the
Triangle westward, over the western and southern Piedmont to
Sandhills region of central NC. It appears that a trough over the MO
valley region to Great Lakes and over the north-central Gulf may be
helping to pull Chantal further to the NW, producing a band of
higher QPF on its NW side. In this region of central NC, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, locally 4+, are possible. However, as has
happened so often in our area, the QPF footprint may be off by 50 to
100 miles. Also, some guidance is still indicating other alternate
scenarios, such as the HRRR, which shows higher totals to the north
and east of Chantal over the Coastal Plain. As such, given this
potential uncertainty, we included portions of the Coastal Plain in
the Flood Watch, in case minor changes to the track/QPF occur with
future updates.

In addition to the flash flood threat, a tornado threat will exist
for the Sandhills to the central Coastal Plain, largely south and
east of the Triangle. Enhanced low-level flow/shear and instability
with low/mid 70s dewpoints will favor the potential for low-topped
supercells over eastern NC, where the right front quadrant of
Chantal will overspread. It would appear the greatest threat for any
isolated tornadoes would be between mid-morning into early evening,
when the system is more wrapped up, during peak heating, and prior
to becoming an extratropical depression.

Pockets of scattered showers and embedded storms will exist into the
overnight, but should lessen after midnight as the system pulls NE.
Lows will be in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...

The remnants of Chantal will gradually lift NE into VA during the
aftn or eve on Mon. Morning pockets of showers and clouds should
give way to some partial sunshine in the aftn/eve as weak westerly
flow aloft overspreads the area. That should favor a warmer and also
humid day with upper 80s E to low 90s W. Even with its departure,
scattered showers and storms will be possible, especially along/east
of US-1 closer to the departing low. That said, I would not be
surprised if there is less overall storm coverage owing to weak
westerly downslope flow. There will, however, be a weak trough over
the OH valley with a developing weak lee trough in western NC that
could still favor isolated/scattered storms. Any storms should die
out after sunset, with lows muggy in the mid 70s with possible fog
and stratus.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1233 PM Sunday...

Expect a return to diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday after a surface trough sets up across the central portion of
North Carolina. Tuesday is also expected to have the least cloud
cover of any day this week, which will help it to be the warmest day
of the week - widespread low to mid 90s are in the forecast for
temperatures and it is the primary day that may reach heat advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. The entire forecast area is under a
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday,
primarily due to the inverted-V soundings which could mix stronger
wind down to the surface. The storms will have plenty of instability
to work with, although deep level shear will be weak and will have a
harder time organizing thunderstorms.

As an upper trough develops over the eastern half of the United
States for the second half of the week, this will increase the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday. This should result in a slight reduction of temperatures -
although most places will still reach the low 90s on Wednesday and
highs in the upper 80s will be more typical on Thursday and Friday
with the increased cloud cover. Once the trough axis moves farther
east and gets closer to the Atlantic coastline over the weekend,
coverage of showers and thunderstorms should decrease somewhat,
returning more to scattered showers/storms each afternoon, with a
slight increase in highs back into the low 90s. While some upper 60s
are possible for overnight lows, most locations will not fall out of
the 70s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

Adverse aviation conditions will dominate at all terminals across
central NC through much of tonight, with SW-to-NE improvement Mon
morning. What is now TD Chantal centered just S of LBT will continue
to track slowly to the NNE and NE through central NC through
tonight, while continuing to weaken to a remnant low. Numerous to
widespread showers, and isolated storms, will bring MVFR to IFR
conditions (both cigs and vsbys) as the storm center tracks through,
with the IFR conditions most likely where the rain is heaviest. Wind
concerns are now lower as the storm weakens, although sporadic
surface gusts up to 15-20 kts are possible anywhere, with isolated
up to 20-35 kts in and near the heavier showers and isolated storms,
mostly this afternoon through early evening. Once the low center
tracks NE of central NC early Mon morning, leaving behind a weak
trough down through the area, cigs and vsbys will quickly trend to
VFR, with just mid and high clouds over the area and light surface
winds through the end of the TAF valid period.

Looking beyond 18z Mon, a few showers and storms are possible with
heating Mon from mid afternoon to early evening, mainly at RWI/FAY.
Additional rounds of scattered storms are expected each afternoon
through mid evening Tue-Fri as a weak upper trough holds to our
west, and early-morning areas of sub-VFR fog and stratus are
possible each day Wed-Fri. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007-008-021>025-038>042-
073>078-083>086-088-089.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield