771
FXUS62 KRAH 100749
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
349 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbances in unseasonably moist, southwesterly flow aloft will
interact with a surface trough over the Middle Atlantic and
Carolinas through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...

* A Flood Watch is in effect today for all of central NC through at
  least 2 AM then only the Coastal Plain until 5 AM.

* Weakly organized storms will be capable of torrential rainfall,
  which may result in scattered flash flooding, as well as strong to
  locally severe wind gusts.

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a positively-tilted
trough axis extending from southern Quebec southwestward through
the Ohio Valley into the ArkLaTex region. Ahead of this feature,
continued moist southwesterly flow aloft will keep anomalous
deep-layer moisture in place over the Mid-Atlantic into the
Southeast. The trough axis is expected to slowly sag eastward
through this evening and reach the eastern Carolinas by Fri
morning. Regional radar imagery also show several embedded MVC`s
rotating through the mean flow over the southern Appalachians
as well as central SC and southeastern GA.

After the widespread early morning stratus gradually scatters out
through mid-morning, a continued warm and moist airmass, with
surface dew points in the low/mid 70s, should result in 1500-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE with diurnal heating. Anomalous deep-layer moisture
in place will favor relatively early convective initiation over
western NC and SC due to low convective temps and weak synoptic
ascent. This should result in scattered to numerous showers and
storms once again through the afternoon as convective outflows
spread into our area. Weak steering winds and deep-layer shear <
20kts will result in slow storm motions of efficient heavy rain
producing storms, only propagating along the development of common
cold pools and storm scale MCVs.

Flooding and severe risk: Greatest concern will once again be
scattered instances of flash flooding due to a large portion of the
Piedmont particularly sensitive to additional rainfall (the area
from the Triad to the Triangle to Fayetteville to Albemarle has
experienced 2 to over +10 inches within the past 7 days, which
is 200 to +600% of normal). 00z HREF and 18z REFS are in good
agreement that the rainfall footprint may look closer to a more
classic summer-time pattern where most places will see at least
trace amounts to 0.5-1", but concentrated areas of 2 to 5+
inches will again be possible. Both ensemble systems highlight
the greatest probabilities for concentrated higher amounts to be
bimodal, one area over the western/southern Piedmont into the
western Sandhills, and another somewhere over the Coastal Plain.
However, it is important to note that in these patterns,
locally higher and potentially significant rainfall amounts can
occur anywhere. Additionally, one or two strong to severe
convective clusters will be capable of producing strong to
severe winds, but with heavily saturated soils over a large
portion of the Piedmont, scattered downed trees will be possible
even with sub-severe wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...

The short term section of the AFD will be updated shortly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

* There is a Marginal Risk for both excessive rainfall and severe
  storms on Friday.

Aloft, the weak wave over the area on Fri should slowly drift newd
out of the area Fri night. High pressure may briefly build back in
on Sat and Sun. A northern stream s/w will swing ewd from the
northern Plains to the Northeast/southeast Canada from Sat to Mon.
While high pressure may hold across the area, the s/w trough could
clip central NC on Sun. The longwave trough may finally extend swwd
through and slip sewd into central NC early-mid next week. The
surface pattern will largely remain the same as it has been, with
relative low pressure/trough over the area. With little change in
airmass, expect continued aft/eve convection each day through the
extended forecast period, with greater coverage/intensity coincident
with s/w passages aloft and slightly less coverage/intensity when
the high aloft ridges over the area. Highs should generally be in
the upper 80s to low 90s, while lows in the upper 60s to low 70s are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 AM Thursday...

Widespread convective overturning and rain-cooled air/outflow has
resulted across all but the ern part of NC as of 05Z, including a
small segment of cntl NC from FAY to CTZ. There may yet be a few
showers/storms in a lingering instability axis there for the next
few hours. Otherwise, the earlier widespread convection has
transitioned to diminishing intensity, stratiform rain; and that
continued diminishing/dissipating trend of both the rain and multi-
layered mid/high-level overcast will continue through the morning.
While those mid/high-level clouds and rain dissipate, LIFR-IFR ones
will develop in the unseasonably humid and aforementioned rain-
cooled air below. Those ceilings are expected to then persist
through mid-morning, then lift through MVFR and scatter to VFR
through late morning to midday. Scattered to locally numerous
convection will probably redevelop with daytime heating of an
unseasonably moist airmass, and under the influence of a series of
mid-level disturbances that will track across the region, later this
afternoon-evening.

Outlook: Another day of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms
appears likely for Friday, with coverage more scattered Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday. In addition, considering the early morning
fog/stratus that occurred Wed morning and that is expected again
this morning, early morning restrictions could continue through the
next several days with no change in air mass.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>010-021>025-
038>040-073>076-083>086.
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-
077-078-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MWS/Green