347
FXUS62 KRAH 150718
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong subtropical ridge will remain over the Southeast through
early to mid-week. A cold front will approach from the northwest on
Wednesday and stall out over the region into the weekend, resulting
in unsettled weather to close out the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

...Heat Advisory Has Been Expanded Into the Southern Piedmont...
...Record Breaking Temperatures...

Subtropical ridging atop offshore Bermuda high pressure with a lee
troughing along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians will persist
through mid week.

Models continue to indicate that the heat will build ever so
slightly today as h8 temps warm from 22C to 23C and low-level
thicknesses increase 1442m to 1447m. This should translate into 1-2
degrees of warming with record breaking high temps expected at 2 of
our 3 climate sites(GSO and RDU) as most locations warm into the
upper 90s, with some triple digits/lower 100s possible in the
typically warmer locations. Meanwhile, the soupy dewpoints will
continue to pool across the eastern half of the forecast area, which
will exacerbate the effects heat and lead to heat indices of 105 to
109 degrees. Have expanded the Heat Advisory into the southern
Piedmont counties, which now encompasses all but 4 of our
northern/northwest Piedmont counties.

We will see another day of isolated to widely scattered diurnal
showers and storms, with the lee trough, seabreeze, and weak
perturbations moving off the higher terrain providing the foci.

Convection will fizzle out after loss of heating with dry conditions
overnight. Muggy lows in the mid to upper 70s, with little to no
overnight relief from the heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Remaining under the influence of the subtropical ridging aloft and
Bermuda high pressure in the lower levels, PWATs increase 2.2-2.3"
across the area Tuesday. Rain chances should be up from previous
days, more in the climatological ranges(~40%), as models suggested a
noted increase in the potential for weak perturbations to move
through the region. While the increase in cloud cover and rain
chances should temper high temps 2-3 degrees, the higher
humidity/dewpoints should offset the slightly cooler temps to yield
similar heat indices in the 105-109 range. Thus, additional Heat
Advisories will be needed be much of the same areas.

Given the moist airmass, convection could linger well into the
overnight hours. Balmy overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Daily (mostly diurnal) PoPs for the rest of the long term period
will be higher than climo as an upper trough deepens and moves
across the Great Lakes and Northeast regions and a cold front slowly
drifts south across the mountains and approaches us from the
northwest during the Wed-Thu time frame, and eventually stalling and
lingering across our region Fri-Sun.  High-chance to low-likely PoPs
are warranted Wed-Sun, which when coupled with increased cloud
coverage should subsequently result in temps at least closer to
climo, if not a few degree cooler than climo during the wettest
days, which right now appears to be Thu and Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

Expect predominately VFR conditions, though some patchy ground fog
will be possible near areas that saw downpours this past evening.

Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms will develop again this
afternoon, with best chances near KFAY as convection along the sea
breeze penetrates inland.

Outlook: Isolated storms remain in the forecast early this week, but
generally VFR is expected. A better chance of widespread showers and
storms, and thus flight restrictions, occurs in the Wed-Fri period
as a front settles into the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 15:
KGSO: 97/1974
KRDU: 99/1997

July 16:
KGSO: 99/1915
KRDU: 101/1887
KFAY: 103/1937

July 17:
KRDU: 100/1887
KFAY: 102/1932


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 14:
KGSO: 77/1981
KRDU: 77/2017
KFAY: 80/2017

July 15:
KGSO: 74/2019
KRDU: 76/1992
KFAY: 78/2015

July 16:
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 78/1992

July 17:
KGSO: 75/2013
KRDU: 80/1887
KFAY: 77/2019

July 18:
KGSO: 76/1986
KRDU: 79/1887
KFAY: 77/2019

July 19:
KGSO: 75/2016
KFAY: 77/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ008>011-023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...CBL/Kren
CLIMATE...RAH