761
FXUS62 KRAH 280655
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The backdoor front will lift north across the mid-Atlantic as a warm
front today. A mid and upper-level ridge will otherwise weaken while
drifting from the southern Middle Atlantic to near and east of
Bermuda this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

* Continued above normal temperatures and afternoon/evening
  convection expected.

A surface trough will remain over the area through tonight. Aloft,
high pressure will continue ridging wwd into the mid-Atlantic as the
high remains over Bermuda. Meanwhile, the weak upper low will
continue drifting nwd across GA and into the wrn Carolinas through
tonight. As with the previous couple of days, weak perturbations
around the upper low moving across the area this aft/eve could help
kick off showers and storms, especially along residual surface
boundaries and convergence zones. The NAM and the RAP show SBCAPE
values ranging from around 1500 to 3000 J/Kg this evening. PWATs of
1.8 to 2.1 inches are also expected. Wind profiles remain relatively
weak, with bulk shear values still less than 20 kts. However, 0-3 km
lapse rates are still forecast to be decent. The storms will likely
again be pulse in nature and isolated to widely scattered in
coverage. Localized heavy rainfall and isolated strong wind gusts
will be possible. Any convection that develops should taper off with
loss of heating this eve.

As for temperatures, max low-level thicknesses continue to decrease,
peaking around 1425-1430 meters this evening. Highs today still 5-10
degrees above normal, in the low to mid 90s expected, with heat
index values of up to 101 degrees. Lows tonight should generally be
in the low to mid 70s, with a few isolated upper 60s possible in the
usual cooler spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue on
Sunday considering there will not be a change in air mass.
Interestingly, the deterministic models do not show much in the way
of coverage, although the ensembles continue to show great
precipitation coverage. Thunderstorm coverage should be greatest
across the west. Highs will remain in the 90s along with lows in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

Coverage of showers/storms appears that it could be slightly less
across the east on Monday compared to Sunday, although there should
still be greater coverage to the west Monday afternoon. Models
continue to show good agreement that a cold front should approach
the Appalachian Mountains Tuesday and make its way to the I-95
corridor by Wednesday morning. This time of year, it can be hard for
any cold front to make its way through the region, but Tuesday and
Tuesday night should be the most likely period for precipitation
during the seven day forecast. Whatever remains of the front on
Wednesday is likely to get hung up along the Atlantic coastline,
shifting the focus of showers/thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor
resulting in likely showers/storms across the southeastern half of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Most of the region will have
a chance of showers/storms on Thursday, and as the front dissipates
along the coast Friday and Saturday, just a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms should remain across the region.

Highs will generally be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, although
Wednesday`s highs should drop about 3 to 5 degrees behind the cold
front before rebounding later in the week. Lows will range from the
upper 60s to the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 AM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: Lingering storms near KINT/KGSO will continue
for the first couple/few hours of the period, with the potential for
some increased winds and reduced cigs/vsbys where they occur.
Otherwise and elsewhere, winds should be generally calm to light
through daybreak, increasing a couple/few kts during the day and
becoming mainly sly-swly during the aft. While most of the period
should be VFR, MVFR/IFR vsbys may again develop at KRWI in the pre-
dawn hours, and given the convection today, IFR/LIFR cigs will be
possible at KINT/KGSO. Any restrictions that materialize should
begin clearing up after daybreak. Expect scattered showers/storms
again this aft/eve, accompanied by the usual restrictions.

Outlook: There will be the chance for diurnally driven convection
through the weekend, increasing in chances and coverage mid-week.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC/MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...KC