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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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413 FXUS62 KRAH 160527 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 127 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong subtropical ridge will gradually weaken over the Southeast though mid-week. A cold front will settle into the Carolinas on Thursday, then become quasi-stationary while weakening into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 PM Monday... Although the forecast area is nearly completely dry at the moment, some additional showers and thunderstorms are currently moving east from the western portion of the state, and could bring some additional rain to western counties in the forecast area. These showers shouldn`t last much past midnight, with drying conditions afterwards. It will be another warm night, with lows only falling into the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Monday... ...A heat advisory has been issued for Tuesday from 12 PM to 8 PM... ...Little overnight recovery from dangerous afternoon heat increases the risk for heat related illnesses... Dangerous heat will certainly be possible Tues as the persistently hot and humid airmass remains in place over central NC. High temperatures again will quickly rise into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees, with heat index values of 100 to 109 expected. Low- level thicknesses and 850mb temperatures will be relatively comparable to Mon, but the biggest question mark is the degree of cloud cover through the early afternoon. A mid/upper level anticyclone just off the Southeast coast will sag south and east by Mon morning and help draw in increased PWAT values of 2 to 2.25 inches by Tues afternoon. This increased moisture may facilitate greater cloud cover as well as earlier storm initiation and greater storm coverage by early afternoon. These factors may result in some areas not reaching heat advisory criteria, but the locations that miss out on storms and cooling convective outflow will likely experience dangerous heat on Tues within the advisory area. Additionally, multiple days of dangerous heat and little to no overnight recovery only exacerbate the potential for heat related illnesses if proper precautions are not taken. Anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration will be at greatest risk. Storm coverage could be greater on Tues given the potential for more efficient updrafts, but severe threat continues to be limited given weak deep layer shear (around 15 kts 0-6km shear). Strong wind gusts from wet downburst will be possible as well as isolated instances of minor flooding given slow storm motions and deep warm cloud layer. Training storms over the same area will likely be required to cause any flash flooding. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... The long term period is shaping up to be unsettled each day, and potentially wet on Thursday and Friday. The period will start off Wednesday with a trough digging and moving east over the Great Lakes region. A sfc front during this time will be moving across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, over our region, moist sw flow, pwat well over 2 inches, along with an ongoing Piedmont trough will set the stage for scattered showers and tstms during the afternoon and evening. Until these storms move through, look for highs to quickly climb into the mid 90s with heat index values in excess of 100 across much of the state and possible heat advisory criteria across the eastern half of our CWA. Thursday and Friday still look to be the wettest days in the long term period with the aforementioned front moving into our area and tapping the moist air mass thats in place. Given the slow-moving nature of the front, there could be slow-moving and repetitive showers/tstms both days. The latest WPC ERO for these two days basically show marginal across the western half of the state and slight across the eastern half of the state, while marginal exists across the entire state on Friday. Given the anticipated cloud and shower/tstm coverage, temps will be cooler both days with highs in near 90 on Thursday and perhaps mid 80s on Friday. The upper trough will gradually lift out over the weekend and by Monday the ridge will become re-established over the Southeast. As such, the late-week front will lift back to the north and become stationary invof the VA/NC border by late in the weekend and for Monday. That boundary, along with the typical Piedmont trough over the area, will result in daily mostly-diurnal aoa climo PoPs each day Sat through Mon. Temps during this time may continue to be held back by cloud cover, so will lean toward lower end of the temp guidance envelope, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 127 AM Tuesday... VFR conditions are mostly expected overnight. However, based on persistent, cannot rule out isolated pockets of fog, mainly at KRWI. Shower and storm coverage this afternoon and evening is expected to be higher than the past couple of days, with a general consensus that a cluster of storms will move west to east across the area between 18 to 00z. Have added a prob30 for all TAF sites. Convection should dissipate between 03 to 06z. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue away from diurnally-driven convection, which will gradually increase in coverage through Wed. A cold front will move into NC late Wed-Wed night, then become quasi-stationary over the region Thu-Sat. Higher chances of flight restrictions, both in and away from diurnally- maximized convection, will consequently result Thu-Sat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 16: KGSO: 99/1915 KRDU: 101/1887 KFAY: 103/1937 July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 16: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 77/2010 KFAY: 78/1992 July 17: KGSO: 75/2013 KRDU: 80/1887 KFAY: 77/2019 July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KRDU: 79/1887 KFAY: 77/2019 July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023 July 20: KGSO: 75/2019 KRDU: 76/2020 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011- 023>028-039>043-074>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Swiggett LONG TERM...np AVIATION...CBL/Luchetti CLIMATE...RAH