634
FXUS65 KPUB 140537
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1137 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record heat expected again on Sunday with one more hot day
  expected on Monday.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over and
  near the mountains each afternoon and evening, with chances
  for storms on the plains increasing from Tuesday onwards.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday and continue through much
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Into the evening, the thermal ridge will continue to slide eastward
over the area. Hi-res models (HRRR/NAM 3km) indicate isolated
showers and thunderstorms continuing to develop for areas along and
west of the I-25 corridor this afternoon and then shifting to
development further east into the SE Plains by evening. Given
how dry it is in the lower levels with 60 degree dew point
depressions, precipitation will be limited with more virga and
dry lightning expected. Downdraft CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg
west of the I-25 corridor and 1500-2100 J/kg east of the I-25
corridor make dry microbursts possible with some gusts reaching
40-50 mph.

There continues to be NAM/GFS/ECMWF agreement that the mid-level
thermal ridge will slide eastward across the area through Sunday and
then begin to breakdown and slide southward on Monday. This will
allow for at least one more day of oppressive heat with Heat
Advisories for the I-25 corridor and eastward into the SE Plains on
Sunday. On Monday, as the ridge breaks down, we still could see some
locations reach the 100-105F range in the SE Plains and a Heat
Advisory may be needed for eastern Kiowa, Prowers, and Bent counties
in future updates. Highs on Sunday are pretty close to the National
Blend of Models (NBM) with the I-25 corridor again nearing 100F
(Pueblo up to 105F) and some locations in the SE Plains in the 105-
110F range. For Monday, it will be just a few degrees slightly
cooler for the I-25 corridor and eastward into the Plains. For the
San Luis Valley highs each day will be in the upper 80s. For higher
terrain, highs generally in the 70s and 80s can be expected each
day.

The pattern of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
continue Sunday and again on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center
High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (SPC HREF) indicates showers
and thunderstorms developing again over higher terrain and then
spreading to areas along and east of the I-25 corridor on
Sunday. Moisture will be on the increase on Monday with PWAT
values increasing to near 1.00". This increase in moisture will
contribute to higher chances of showers and thunderstorms across
the area and especially across the SE Plains. Instability
appears to be pretty weak each day (SBCAPE <500 J/kg) although
more moderate shear (0-6km 40kts approx) should help contribute
to some stronger storms with gusty winds each day. Given the
increase PWAT values, cannot rule out localized heavy rainfall
and a flash flooding threat, but it should isolated in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A more active period is ahead as the GFS/ECMWF ensembles indicate
the thermal ridge will break down, slide southward, and moisture
will be on the increase. For the mid-week through Friday, the mid-
level flow looks to become more northwesterly as the ridge amplifies
and builds back northward into Utah and a trough passes well
northeast of the area. Deep layer moisture will be on the increase
this week and will contribute to increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the week, especially over the SE Plains.

A cold front will drop southward across the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night, providing forcing to make showers and thunderstorms
more likely and severe weather with damaging winds and large hail
possible. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
diurnally-driven each afternoon into the evening with lulls with the
loss of heating overnight. Given PWAT values increasing to 1.25" to
even 1.5" in the SE Plains, flash flooding will become more of a
threat Tuesday and continuing into the end of the week.

For temperatures, highs on Tuesday will be cooler and closer to
normal seasonal values, ranging from the low to mid 90s across the
SE Plains to the upper 80s along the Rampart Range I-25 corridor to
the mid 80s in the San Luis Valley. In the wake of the front, a
cooler air mass along with increase moisture/cloudiness will
contribute to temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal
Wednesday into Friday. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS for the next 24 hours. Gusty outflow winds from dissipating
showers are still over KPUB this hour, but are expected to weaken by
around 07Z. West winds become lighter and more northerly at all
three stations through the early morning hours, and eventually
become westerly at KALS and southeasterly at KCOS and KPUB tomorrow
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected once again tomorrow, though confidence was too low to
include in the vicinity of any station at this time. Storms could
bring gusty and erratic outflow winds to all three stations tomorrow
afternoon and tomorrow evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086-089-
093-095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...EHR