Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
236 FXUS65 KPUB 091736 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1136 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cool and cloudy day for our Friday, with showers and thunderstorms developing over the high country and spreading out onto the plains later this afternoon and this evening. - Continued showers and thunderstorms over the weekend into early next week. - Cool through Monday, warming back to near normal for next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 339 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Currently.. Light rain showers are still pushing across the area, especially over the high country and our southern and eastern plains. Skies are overcast, with deep upslope over the Pikes Peak region. Temperatures and dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s over the plains and our mountain valleys. Today and Tonight.. Our pattern is largely unchanged today, as we remain along the northern periphery of the high with a low to our northeast over the Great Lakes region. Today`s forecast will once again hinge upon the development cloud cover over the area, and how stable our plains stay heading into the afternoon. Though convection was late to get going over the plains yesterday, portions of El Paso County saw over an inch of rain with storms late last night. We will be cooler today, and possibly even more stable over our northern plains, but high res model guidance still seems to suggest that it will be possible to see another round of late afternoon and evening showers and weak storms that could persist into the overnight hours again tonight. With even less instability than yesterday, the main risks with storms today will be excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially for our southern plains and vulnerable locations in the high country. PWAT anomalies are still over 160% of normal across the area, and the WPC has a majority of our forecast area outlined in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Increased cloud cover and upslope will result in cooler temperatures, with highs only climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s across the plains, mid 70s for mountain valleys, and 50s and 60s for higher terrain locations. Expect showers and cloud cover to linger into the overnight hours once again as we head into Saturday morning with lows in the 50s for most areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 339 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Model guidance is decent agreement through the first half of the extended period, with differences later on. The main differences in the nearer term are with individual embedded waves moving across Colorado and precipitation chances. Saturday through Tuesday...an upper level ridge is forecast to drift eastward across Colorado into early next week. Flow aloft will transitions from westerly to southwesterly. Several embedded waves in the flow will track across the region, with each wave producing chances for showers and thunderstorms. The first will move across the region on Saturday into Saturday night. The GFS is most progressive, taking the upper wave across northern Colorado. The NAM is much deeper and a bit slower, tracking the energy southeast across eastern Colorado Saturday night. The GFS has a majority of precipitation across the Central Mountains, Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado. The NAM has a pretty good area of precipitation dropping south off the Palmer Divide an into the Plains overnight Saturday. Currently have the highest precipitation chances across the higher terrain, then spreading east across the Plains Saturday night. A second piece of energy is forecast to move across southern Colorado on Sunday into Sunday night. Again, the GFS is a bit faster than the NAM, which brings the wave across the area Sunday night. Again, have precipitation chances over the Mountains Sunday, then spreading eastward across the Plains Sunday evening and overnight. An upper trough across the western conus will begin to force the upper ridge east on Monday, turning flow more southwesterly aloft. Slightly drier air will work into the region Monday into Tuesday with this southwesterly flow. Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, especially across the higher terrain. However, precipitation chances on the Plains may begin to fall off, especially on Tuesday. Temperatures look to remain below normal across much of the region through Sunday, with highs in the 70s and 80s. Temperatures will begin to warm up to near seasonal Monday into Tuesday, with 80s and lower 90s across the lower elevations. Wednesday through Friday...models and ensembles begin to diverge a bit for mid to late week with the strength of the upper ridge across the Desert Southwest and how quickly it wants to bring in an upper trough to the Pacific Northwest. The GFS amplifies the flow across Colorado, with a much stronger upper trough in the Pacific Northwest, and ridge in the Central Plains. After a brief moisture cutoff Wednesday, the southwesterly flow and monsoonal moisture tap returns with mountain precipitation during this period. The ECMWF is much weaker with the Pacific Northwest system and stronger with an upper high across Colorado. The ECMWF is drier, with the main moisture plume to the west. Did not stray away from the NBM guidance with lower precipitation chances, mainly focused across the higher terrain. Overall, temperatures will remain near normal with upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations. Mozley && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Lots of moisture and clouds are over the region. Low cigs have been slow to break up at all of the TAF sites, but based on statistical guidance, we should see the cigs rise by early to mid afternoon. Best overall best chance of precip will be along the southern parts of the region, and KALS will see the best chance of rain through the next 24 hours. Later this evening, with the moisture continuing over the area and light winds, lower cigs and some BR will be likely at the taf sites. It is relatively stable over the region, so TSRA will not be that widespread or strong, but isold thunder will be possible, especially during the later afternoon and evening time periods. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...HODANISH