236
FXUS65 KPUB 091736
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1136 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another cool and cloudy day for our Friday, with showers and
thunderstorms developing over the high country and spreading out
onto the plains later this afternoon and this evening.

- Continued showers and thunderstorms over the weekend into
  early next week.

- Cool through Monday, warming back to near normal for next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Currently..

Light rain showers are still pushing across the area, especially
over the high country and our southern and eastern plains. Skies are
overcast, with deep upslope over the Pikes Peak region. Temperatures
and dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s over the plains and our
mountain valleys.

Today and Tonight..

Our pattern is largely unchanged today, as we remain along the
northern periphery of the high with a low to our northeast over the
Great Lakes region. Today`s forecast will once again hinge upon the
development cloud cover over the area, and how stable our plains
stay heading into the afternoon. Though convection was late to get
going over the plains yesterday, portions of El Paso County saw over
an inch of rain with storms late last night. We will be cooler
today, and possibly even more stable over our northern plains, but
high res model guidance still seems to suggest that it will be
possible to see another round of late afternoon and evening showers
and weak storms that could persist into the overnight hours again
tonight. With even less instability than yesterday, the main risks
with storms today will be excessive rainfall and flash flooding,
especially for our southern plains and vulnerable locations in the
high country. PWAT anomalies are still over 160% of normal across
the area, and the WPC has a majority of our forecast area outlined
in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Increased cloud cover and
upslope will result in cooler temperatures, with highs only climbing
into the mid 70s to low 80s across the plains, mid 70s for mountain
valleys, and 50s and 60s for higher terrain locations. Expect
showers and cloud cover to linger into the overnight hours once
again as we head into Saturday morning with lows in the 50s for most
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Model guidance is decent agreement through the first half of the
extended period, with differences later on. The main differences
in the nearer term are with individual embedded waves moving
across Colorado and precipitation chances.

Saturday through Tuesday...an upper level ridge is forecast to
drift eastward across Colorado into early next week. Flow aloft
will transitions from westerly to southwesterly. Several
embedded waves in the flow will track across the region, with
each wave producing chances for showers and thunderstorms. The
first will move across the region on Saturday into Saturday
night. The GFS is most progressive, taking the upper wave across
northern Colorado. The NAM is much deeper and a bit slower,
tracking the energy southeast across eastern Colorado Saturday
night. The GFS has a majority of precipitation across the
Central Mountains, Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado. The NAM
has a pretty good area of precipitation dropping south off the
Palmer Divide an into the Plains overnight Saturday. Currently
have the highest precipitation chances across the higher
terrain, then spreading east across the Plains Saturday night.

A second piece of energy is forecast to move across southern
Colorado on Sunday into Sunday night. Again, the GFS is a bit
faster than the NAM, which brings the wave across the area
Sunday night. Again, have precipitation chances over the
Mountains Sunday, then spreading eastward across the Plains
Sunday evening and overnight.

An upper trough across the western conus will begin to force the
upper ridge east on Monday, turning flow more southwesterly
aloft. Slightly drier air will work into the region Monday into
Tuesday with this southwesterly flow. Showers and thunderstorms
will still be possible, especially across the higher terrain.
However, precipitation chances on the Plains may begin to fall
off, especially on Tuesday.

Temperatures look to remain below normal across much of the
region through Sunday, with highs in the 70s and 80s.
Temperatures will begin to warm up to near seasonal Monday into
Tuesday, with 80s and lower 90s across the lower elevations.

Wednesday through Friday...models and ensembles begin to
diverge a bit for mid to late week with the strength of the
upper ridge across the Desert Southwest and how quickly it wants
to bring in an upper trough to the Pacific Northwest. The GFS
amplifies the flow across Colorado, with a much stronger upper
trough in the Pacific Northwest, and ridge in the Central
Plains. After a brief moisture cutoff Wednesday, the
southwesterly flow and monsoonal moisture tap returns with
mountain precipitation during this period. The ECMWF is much
weaker with the Pacific Northwest system and stronger with an
upper high across Colorado. The ECMWF is drier, with the main
moisture plume to the west. Did not stray away from the NBM
guidance with lower precipitation chances, mainly focused across
the higher terrain. Overall, temperatures will remain near
normal with upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Lots of moisture and clouds are over the region. Low cigs have
been slow to break up at all of the TAF sites, but based on
statistical guidance, we should see the cigs rise by early to
mid afternoon. Best overall best chance of precip will be along
the southern parts of the region, and KALS will see the best
chance of rain through the next 24 hours. Later this evening,
with the moisture continuing over the area and light winds,
lower cigs and some BR will be likely at the taf sites. It is
relatively stable over the region, so TSRA will not be that
widespread or strong, but isold thunder will be possible,
especially during the later afternoon and evening time periods.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH