Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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235 FXUS65 KPUB 092343 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 543 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and wet weather next 24 hours. - Some locally heavy rain possible through the period. - Isolated marginally svr storms tomorrow. - Near to below normal temperatures continue through the extended with the unsettled pattern with daily thunderstorm chances continuing. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Currently...Lots of clouds and showers over the region at 2 pm. Two areas of focus were noted, along the CO/NM border where the weak surface boundary was noted, and along a weak wave which extended from NE CO southwest into the La Garitas. Quite a temp gradient across the region at this hour as temps up in the Pikes Peak region (lower elevations) were in the mid 50s while KTAD/Walsenburg region were in the mid 70s (In Teller county temps were in the 70s). Rest of Today into Tonight... Guidance continues to print out widespread QPF and this appears believable. DESI analysis shows general (mean) amounts of 0.1 to 0.3 across a widespread area through this evening with the heaviest amounts down along the border of CO/NM/OK. Given some CAPE over the higher terrain, a few stronger storms will be possible with locally heavy rain with the convective cells. Additionally, some locally heavy rain will be likely along the border where amounts over 0.5" will be likely. Precip will likely last well into the evening hours going into the overnight time period, with it gradually decreasing towards sunrise. As for temps, it will be relatively uniform across the entire region tonight given the clouds with lows in the 50s plains and valleys and 40s mtns. Tomorrow... A weak "day-2" setup will be in place over the region. Low level moist upslope will combine with modest westerlies to allow for some deep layer shear. Temps are still rather warm aloft so CAPE will not be all that strong, but enough CAPE should be present combined with the shear to allow for a few strong storms during the afternoon time period. With better CAPE, some heavy rainers will be possible, and the region is once again outlooked for marginal risk for flash flooding. This will be especially true if locally heavy rain occurs tonight, making the antecedent conditions receptive for flash flooding. Tomorrow will likely start out rather cloudy, especially the plains. Max temps tomorrow will be warmer than today, and anticipated readings in the 80s plains, with 70s in the valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Upper ridge to the south with perturbations riding the northern periphery will keep an unsettled pattern over CO each day through much of the extended. Temperatures rebound a few degrees for Sunday but precipitable waters will still be running around 100-130% of normal with a modest monsoon fetch still residing across CO. Lee trough dries out the low levels a bit across the I-25 corridor but will have to watch an axis of higher dew points and CAPE across the eastern plains where a few stronger storms could form within some modest deep layer shears around 30 kts. Front sags south into the area on Monday which will drop temperatures back across eastern areas to below climatological normals. Southeasterly flow will bring higher dew points back westward into the plains and southeast mountains as another disturbance in the upper levels moves through westerly flow aloft. This should bring another uptick in thunderstorms to the mountains and plains. Higher CAPE across the far eastern plains combined with deep layer shears around 30-40 kts could lead to one or two strong to severe storms for the eastern counties where axis of higher CAPE will reside. Heavy rain will be possible with all thunderstorms as Precipitable waters will stay in the 100-140% of normal range. Southwest to westerly flow brings a bit drying into the region towards mid week, dropping precipitable waters back to around normal. There will still be sufficient moisture for daily thunderstorms in and near the mountains each day, but temperatures should return to near normal. Upper high rebuilds over CO and the central plains as a new upper trough enters the Pacific Northwest. Conceptually this should bring a better fetch of monsoon moisture into the region by the weekend, and the potential for near to a little above normal temperatures. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 KALS: Showers and MVFR cigs will stick in the area through most of the forecast period, with the highest confidence in -SHRA at the terminal between 06-09Z tonight. There is a low chance for some fog development in the early hours of tomorrow morning, but left as BR in the TEMPO group for now. Cigs will start to improve tomorrow afternoon after 18Z, with some showers and storms over the nearby mountains. KCOS: Showers will remain in the area, with occasional -SHRA through about 05Z tonight. Models show cigs quickly lowering with some low stratus in the IFR range. Conditions will improve after sunrise tomorrow, returning to largely VFR by about 18Z. Thunderstorms are expected in the area tomorrow afternoon, closer to the end of the period. KPUB: Showers will remain in the area into tonight with mostly MVFR to high-end IFR cigs. Best confidence in rain at the terminal will be 05-09Z tonight with some mist and lowered vis. Conditions will improve late tomorrow morning into early afternoon, though some showers and storms are expected to move off of the nearby higher terrain closer to the end of this forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO