148
FXUS65 KPUB 100545
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1145 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and wet weather next 24 hours.

- Some locally heavy rain possible through the period.

- Isolated marginally svr storms tomorrow.

- Near to below normal temperatures continue through the
  extended with the unsettled pattern with daily thunderstorm
  chances continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Currently...Lots of clouds and showers over the region at 2 pm. Two
areas of focus were noted, along the CO/NM border where the
weak surface boundary was noted, and along a weak wave which
extended from NE CO southwest into the La Garitas. Quite a temp
gradient across the region at this hour as temps up in the Pikes
Peak region (lower elevations) were in the mid 50s while
KTAD/Walsenburg region were in the mid 70s (In Teller county
temps were in the 70s).

Rest of Today into Tonight...

Guidance continues to print out widespread QPF and this appears
believable. DESI analysis shows general (mean) amounts of 0.1 to 0.3
across a widespread area through this evening with the heaviest
amounts down along the border of CO/NM/OK. Given some CAPE over the
higher terrain, a few stronger storms will be possible with locally
heavy rain with the convective cells. Additionally, some locally
heavy rain will be likely along the border where amounts over 0.5"
will be likely. Precip will likely last well into the evening hours
going into the overnight time period, with it gradually decreasing
towards sunrise.

As for temps, it will be relatively uniform across the entire region
tonight given the clouds with lows in the 50s plains and valleys and
40s mtns.

Tomorrow...

A weak "day-2" setup will be in place over the region. Low level
moist upslope will combine with modest westerlies to allow for some
deep layer shear. Temps are still rather warm aloft so CAPE will not
be all that strong, but enough CAPE should be present combined with
the shear to allow for a few strong storms during the afternoon
time period. With better CAPE, some heavy rainers will be
possible, and the region is once again outlooked for marginal
risk for flash flooding. This will be especially true if locally
heavy rain occurs tonight, making the antecedent conditions
receptive for flash flooding.

Tomorrow will likely start out rather cloudy, especially the plains.
Max temps tomorrow will be warmer than today, and anticipated
readings in the 80s plains, with 70s in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Upper ridge to the south with perturbations riding the northern
periphery will keep an unsettled pattern over CO each day through
much of the extended.  Temperatures rebound a few degrees for Sunday
but precipitable waters will still be running around 100-130% of
normal with a modest monsoon fetch still residing across CO.
Lee trough dries out the low levels a bit across the I-25
corridor but will have to watch an axis of higher dew points and
CAPE across the eastern plains where a few stronger storms
could form within some modest deep layer shears around 30 kts.

Front sags south into the area on Monday which will drop
temperatures back across eastern areas to below climatological
normals.  Southeasterly flow will bring higher dew points back
westward into the plains and southeast mountains as another
disturbance in the upper levels moves through westerly flow aloft.
This should bring another uptick in thunderstorms to the mountains
and plains.  Higher CAPE across the far eastern plains combined with
deep layer shears around 30-40 kts could lead to one or two strong
to severe storms for the eastern counties where axis of higher CAPE
will reside.  Heavy rain will be possible with all thunderstorms as
Precipitable waters will stay in the 100-140% of normal range.

Southwest to westerly flow brings a bit drying into the region
towards mid week, dropping precipitable waters back to around
normal.  There will still be sufficient moisture for daily
thunderstorms in and near the mountains each day, but temperatures
should return to near normal.

Upper high rebuilds over CO and the central plains as a new upper
trough enters the Pacific Northwest.  Conceptually this should bring
a better fetch of monsoon moisture into the region by the
weekend, and the potential for near to a little above normal
temperatures. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For KCOS and KPUB..IFR and LIFR ceilings with MVFR visibility
restrictions will be possible through the overnight hours and into
tomorrow morning, as southeasterly and easterly winds and upslope
conditions persisting across both areas. Conditions improve to VFR
through the late morning hours tomorrow, before more chances for
showers and thunderstorms move in after 21Z at both stations.

For KALS..Light showers and MVFR ceilings are expected off and on
over the next few hours, with IFR ceilings developing after 12Z.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms move back in after 18Z
tomorrow, though confidence in thunder over or near station was too
low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR