Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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781 FXUS65 KPUB 100959 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 359 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected again for our Saturday, some of which could be strong to severe on our plains. - Daily showers and thunderstorms expected over the Mountains. - Warming conditions on the Plains, back to near normal. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Currently.. Scattered to numerous showers are still making their way across the southern half of our forecast area early this morning, though lightning has mostly come to an end as of 3am. Widespread low and mid-level cloud cover is blanketing the area, keeping temperatures mostly uniform. Plains locations are in the mid 50s, with higher terrain locations in the 40s. Dewpoints are very near ambient temperatures across the board as many locations are either still seeing rain or are still very near saturation. Winds are still easterly across the plains, leading to low-level upslope conditions for much of the I-25 corridor. Today and Tonight.. With the high shunted off to our south, and increasing west- northwesterly flow aloft over our region, today will be a fair bit warmer than where we`ve been the past couple of days. Highs look to top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains, with mid 70s for mountain valleys and 60s for higher terrain locations. Continued low-level moist upslope and westerly flow aloft will lead to better shear for today, which will help to keep storms more organized this afternoon, especially as they push off of the mountains. Instability will also be slightly more favorable for severe development today, though most high res model guidance still only suggests 1000 to 1200 J/Kg or so of CAPE at the most. Current thinking is that main mode of severe will be excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially given how much rain many locations have received over the past 48 hours, though it does seem possible that a few stronger storms could produce hail to 1 inch and 60 mph winds as well given the better shear environment. The risk for flash flooding will exist with any storms across the area, to include storms over the high country, but the risk for hail and damaging winds will increase mainly along and east of the I-25 corridor. Though storms look to lose their punch quickly after sunset, isolated to scattered weaker storms and showers look to persist into the evening and overnight hours for many locations. Overnight lows will cool to near normal temperatures for most, though any early clearing could mean more efficient cooling and slightly cooler than currently forecast temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Models in decent agreement through Wednesday, with differences showing up for later in the extended period. The ECMWF has remained the most consistent from last night, with a stronger high pressure across the region, while the GFS now takes a Pacific Northwest low across the Northern Plains. Sunday into Monday...flat upper ridging will prevail across the Desert Southwest, with zonal westerly flow across Colorado. Two embedded waves in the zonal flow are forecast to track across southern Colorado, one on Sunday and another on Monday. Both will allow for shower and thunderstorm development across the region. Initiation should take place over the Mountains, and the westerly flow aloft should help push shower and thunderstorm activity east into the Plains during the evening hours. PWAT values remain near 1 inch across the Plains, and SBCAPE values near 500 to 800 j/kg will support potentially heavy rainfall. Low level moisture will remain pooled across the Plains, and any upslope flow will likely depend on any outflow boundaries from previous convection. Temperatures look to warm up as well, with 80s to lower 90s for the lower elevations. Temperatures do have potential to be cooler, and will depend on any cloud cover that may be present. Overall, the main risks from thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds near 40 mph, lightning and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding on area burn scars and flood prone areas. Tuesday and Wednesday...both the GFS and ECMWF develop an upper low over the Pacific Northwest for mid week, which looks to force the upper ridge into the Central Plains. This will force southwesterly flow across Colorado. Model guidance has most shower and thunderstorm activity developing across the Mountains, then spreading northeast into the Palmer Divide and into northeast Colorado during the evening and overnight period. Highest precipitation chances on the Plains look to be north of Highway 50 both days. Again, locally heavy rainfall, lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. Temperatures will continue to be warm with the lower elevations seeing highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Thursday into Saturday...pretty big differences between the model guidance for late week. The ECMWF weakens the upper low over the Pacific Northwest, allowing the upper high to strengthen across Colorado. Shower and thunderstorm activity would look to be confined to the higher elevations with less coverage. Temperatures would also be a bit warmer than the current forecast temperatures. The GFS is more progressive with the upper low, tracking it east across Montana and into the Northern Plains by late week. The GFS keeps northwesterly flow across Colorado, with the upper high building further west. This would also keep better chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Plains, along with possibly cooler temperatures. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, did not stray from the NBM guidance, with near seasonal temperatures and continued precipitation chances for most of the region. Mozley && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 For KCOS and KPUB..IFR and LIFR ceilings and visibilities in mist will continue to be possible through the early morning hours, with clearing expected after 13Z. Conditions improve to VFR through the late morning hours, before more chances for showers and thunderstorms move in after 21Z at both stations. For KALS..Light showers and MVFR ceilings are expected off and on over the next few hours, with clearing beginning after 14Z. Chances for showers and thunderstorms move back in after 18Z tomorrow, though confidence in thunder over or near station was too low to include in the TAF at this time. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...EHR