355
FXUS65 KPUB 060536
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1136 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple of strong to marginally severe storms will be
  possible across the far eastern plains this evening and again
  Sunday afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms continue across the area Monday, then
  hotter and drier weather expected Tue/Wed with only very
  isolated storm activity.

- Hot Thursday, but with an uptick in thunderstorm chances as a
  cold front approaches, then cooler Friday with scattered
  storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Currently...Upper ridge of high pressure was building across the
Desert SW this afternoon, as an upper shortwave was pushing across
ID and the northern Rockies. Plenty of sun across southern Colorado
today has helped warm temps into the 70s to around 80F for the high
valleys as of 1 PM, and into the mid 80s to lower 90s for the
plains. A few showers and storms have developed across the Raton
Mesa and across eastern Kiowa County.

Tonight...The shortwave to the north is going to be the key in
enhancing convective activity this evening. Moisture has been in
place throughout the day, as evidenced by the early morning AC and
the convection currently firing. As the northern shortwave pushes
east through tonight, bulk shear will be on the increase across
northeastern CO, trailing down into the far southeastern plains.
Available CAPE of 1000-1200 j/kg and bulk shear increasing to around
45 kts points to a better shot at stronger to potentially severe
thunderstorms this evening for the far eastern plains, specifically
across Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties, which is why SPC updated
the severe outlook earlier and included Kiowa within the Slight area
for severe weather. Hi-res models are indicating that storm activity
will linger late tonight for the far eastern plains, and may last
into the overnight hours. Main threats will be strong gusts around
60 mph, small hail, brief periods of moderate to heavy rain and of
course cloud to ground lightning. Overnight minimum temps are
expected to cool into the 40s for the high valleys, while remaining
somewhat mild for the plains with mid 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday...Tomorrow looks like it will be a very similar day compared
to today, though without the help of an upper shortwave crossing to
the north. However, models are indicating an increase in residual
llvl moisture, leading to model CAPE of 1600-1800 j/kg lurking
across the eastern plains through the day. Bulk shear is still
forecast to be around 40 kts, so not as strong as this afternoon and
eve but still respectable. SPC has a bit more coverage of the Slight
area for severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains, so plan on
convection to start firing once again by early afternoon, with the
strongest storms likely across the far eastern plains late afternoon
into the evening. Main threats with the stronger storms will once
again be strong gusty outflow winds, small hail and brief periods of
moderate to heavy rain. Another warm, but seasonal, day is on tap,
with highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s
for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Upper ridge begins to build Mon afternoon, though with low
level moisture lingering, scattered afternoon/evening storms
will again be possible, especially across the eastern
mountains/I-25 corridor/southeast plains. Should be enough
instability (CAPE 1k-2k J/KG) for a few stronger storms on the
plains, though decreased shear (0-6km 20-30 kts) may keep a lid
on storm strength, with lower end severe storms (wind 60
mph/quarter size hail) the main risk.

Ridge builds overhead on Tue/Wed, bringing hot temps and
generally suppressing convection across much of the area. Still
enough moisture around for some isolated higher terrain and KS
border storms both days, though weak winds aloft and limited
instability should keep activity rather weak/short lived. Max
temps will climb back into toward the 100f degree mark on the
plains, with 80s/90s widespread at lower elevations, 70s/80s
mountains. 00z deterministic models continue to show a strong
short wave racing across the nrn U.S. late Thu into Fri, pushing
a rather strong cold front south through Colorado late
Thu/early Fri, with timing of frontal passage 8-12 hrs faster
in the 00z runs. Front should provide forcing for increased
thunderstorm chances Thu afternoon/evening, with another round
of showers and thunderstorms on Friday in moister, post-frontal
upslope pattern. Front should arrive late enough to make for
another hot day on Thu, with maxes near 100f again on the
plains, before cooler air spread south on Fri, dropping temps
back toward seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Lingering outflows from storms across the southeast plains
could help trigger an isolated -shra/-tsra at both COS and PUB
through the early morning hours, with the main threat from
storms being gusty winds up to 30kts. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected at both COS and PUB with south to southeast upslope
strengthening through the late morning. This, along with
increasing instability, will lead to the potential for -trsa at
both termainals early tomorrow afternoon, with gusty out flow
winds up to 35kts and brief heavy rain possible at the
termainals through the late afternoon.

VFR conditions with generally light diurnal winds can be
expected at ALS over the next 24 hours, as available moisture
remains lacking.



&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW