502
FXUS65 KPUB 092057
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures today increase through the week.

- 100F+ temperatures expected over the plains starting Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon over the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Generally dry and seasonably warm across the forecast area through
the rest of today, with high temperatures in the 80-90s across most
of the lower areas. Models do show the chance for some isolated-
scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into
evening, but general consensus is that models are a bit over-eager
with regards to POPs. As a broad area of high pressure builds in
from the southwest, synoptic subsidence will start to dominate our
region, making precipitation less likely. Diurnally-forced showers
will still be possible, however, dependent on the amount of CAPE
available and what kind of local orographic forcing we can get. Best
chance for afternoon and evening showers will be across the
mountains, mainly our southeast mountains and parts of the San
Juans, as well as the the Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. At this
time, showers are expected to remain sub-severe, with dry surface
conditions supporting some gusty outflow winds and possible some
small hail. A few isolated, high-based showers may drift over the
plains later this evening, but overall confidence in this is low
(~20%). Showers are expected to dissipate across the area prior to
midnight.

Wednesday...

Temperatures will continue to warm on Wednesday, with highs expected
in the low-mid 90s across the plains. Moisture will be somewhat
lacking, but similar to today isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain. Storms should
be high-based and windy, with little in terms of any severe
potential, though definitely can`t rule out a rogue heavy rainer
over a burn scar, and possibly some small hail. Fire weather
concerns will be low again as well thanks to light winds beneath the
synoptic high.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Temperatures will continue to increase through the rest of this week
and into this weekend. High temperatures over the plains are
expected to exceed 100F by Friday at the latest, with 80s-90s over
the valleys. As the high builds in overhead, winds will remain weak,
so although fuels will continue to slowly cure we should avoid any
critical fire weather conditions for the time being. Looking at
precipitation, the lower elevations are expected to remain largely
dry, with daily chances of isolated-scattered thunderstorms across
the mountains. Precipitation chances should increase around the
start of next week, as long-term models show some better
moisture advection from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR is expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds will
be generally light under 15 knots and diurnally driven. A few
showers are expected in the vicinity of KALS this afternoon, but no
direct impacts to the terminal are expected aside from the
possibility of some gusty outflow. VCSH is also in PUB`s TAF between
00-04Z for a low-end chance of shower moving off the mountains.
While coverage is expected to be spotty, brief gusty outflow and
some light to moderate rain will be possible. If a shower can move
over the terminal, conditions could lower into MVFR for a brief
time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO/Rhoades
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO/Rhoades
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO