983
FXUS65 KPUB 092333
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
533 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures today increase through the week.

- 100F+ temperatures expected over the plains starting Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon over the
  mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Generally dry and seasonably warm across the forecast area through
the rest of today, with high temperatures in the 80-90s across most
of the lower areas. Models do show the chance for some isolated-
scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into
evening, but general consensus is that models are a bit over-eager
with regards to POPs. As a broad area of high pressure builds in
from the southwest, synoptic subsidence will start to dominate our
region, making precipitation less likely. Diurnally-forced showers
will still be possible, however, dependent on the amount of CAPE
available and what kind of local orographic forcing we can get. Best
chance for afternoon and evening showers will be across the
mountains, mainly our southeast mountains and parts of the San
Juans, as well as the the Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. At this
time, showers are expected to remain sub-severe, with dry surface
conditions supporting some gusty outflow winds and possible some
small hail. A few isolated, high-based showers may drift over the
plains later this evening, but overall confidence in this is low
(~20%). Showers are expected to dissipate across the area prior to
midnight.

Wednesday...

Temperatures will continue to warm on Wednesday, with highs expected
in the low-mid 90s across the plains. Moisture will be somewhat
lacking, but similar to today isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain. Storms should
be high-based and windy, with little in terms of any severe
potential, though definitely can`t rule out a rogue heavy rainer
over a burn scar, and possibly some small hail. Fire weather
concerns will be low again as well thanks to light winds beneath the
synoptic high.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Temperatures will continue to increase through the rest of this week
and into this weekend. High temperatures over the plains are
expected to exceed 100F by Friday at the latest, with 80s-90s over
the valleys. As the high builds in overhead, winds will remain weak,
so although fuels will continue to slowly cure we should avoid any
critical fire weather conditions for the time being. Looking at
precipitation, the lower elevations are expected to remain largely
dry, with daily chances of isolated-scattered thunderstorms across
the mountains. Precipitation chances should increase around the
start of next week, as long-term models show some better
moisture advection from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24
hours. Broken mid-level cloud decks are expected for the next few
hours, with gradual clearing through the overnight hours. Virga is
present near both stations this evening, which could lead to gusty
and erratic wind conditions near the terminals through sunset.
Normal drainage wind patterns are expected through the overnight
hours, with easterly winds setting up again for tomorrow afternoon.

For KALS..Showers and weak thunderstorms are expected within the
vicinity of station through 02Z this evening, with the main risks
being gusty and erratic outflow winds and lightning. Broken mid-
level clouds are expected to linger through 06Z tonight, with
clearing sky conditions through tomorrow morning. Another round of
showers and weak storms will be possible very late in the TAF
period, near or just after 00Z tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR