905
FXUS65 KPUB 102108
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
308 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to be on a warming trend through the
  remainder of the week.

- Heat impacts are expected with high temperatures near or above 100F
  over the I-25 corridor and SE Plains Friday into Sunday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible most afternoons
  through the weekend, with coverage on the increase as
  moisture increases early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Into the evening, the area will remain in a north-northwesterly
mid-level flow with increasing moisture filtering into central
and south-central Colorado into the evening. This will help
contribute to the development of isolated diurnal and terrain-
driven showers and thunderstorms, initially over the central
Mountains and then expanding to the San Luis Valley and along
the I-25 corridor by evening. Given the limited instability and
weak shear in place, do not have any concerns of severe weather
today. Given relatively slow motion of any showers and
thunderstorms that develop, the Weather Prediction Center has
highlighted the San Luis Valley and surrounding mountain ranges
with a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall. Thus, a localized,
isolated threat of flash flooding cannot be ruled out into the
evening. For the SE Plains, abundant sunshine will help
contribute to increasing heat across the region, a trend that
will continue into the weekend.

There is NAM/GFS/ECMWF agreement that the mid-level ridge will
continue to slide eastward slowly, centered over the NV-UT border by
late in the day on Thursday. This will keep the area in a north-
northwesterly mid-level flow tonight, with the flow becoming more
northerly on Thursday. Hi-res models support that any lingering
showers and thunderstorms will quickly diminish tonight with the
loss of heating. Showers and thunderstorms will again develop
tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the focus over higher terrain
along and west of the Front Range and southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Once again, we cannot completely rule out an
isolated showers or thunderstorm making it into the I-25
corridor in the late afternoon and evening hours Thursday, but
most of the coverage should be west of the Front Range.

For temperatures, lows tonight are fairly close to the National
Blend of Models (NBM) and will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s
in the SE Plains to the mid 40s in the San Luis Valley to the upper
30s to lower 40s across higher terrain. For highs on Thursday, have
continued the trend of going a couple degrees warmer than the NBM.
Thursday will continue to trend hotter with highs ranging from near
100F in the SE Plains and near Pueblo along the I-25 corridor to the
lower to mid 90s elsewhere along the I-25 corridor. The San Luis
Valley can expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with higher terrain
highs in the 60s and 70s. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The primary impact through this period will be from heat Friday
through Sunday and possibly Monday with unseasonably warm high
temperatures running around 10 degrees above normal for locations
along and east of the I-25 corridor in SE Colorado. There is
GFS/ECMWF ensemble agreement that the mid-level ridge will slowly
slide eastward, becoming centered over Colorado by Sunday. Abundant
sunshine can be expected with the heat, with a persistent pattern of
isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over higher terrain in
the afternoon and spreading into adjacent areas by evening hours
before diminishing overnight.

The ridge should begin to break down some on Monday and slide more
south of the area on Tuesday. With the ridge breaking down, an
increase of monsoonal moisture is expected late Monday for the San
Juans and San Luis Valley and then extending across the rest of the
area by Tuesday. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances
across the area, with likely (60-70%) POPs along and west of the
Front Range decreasing to a chance (30-40%) along the I-25 corridor
and downward to a slight chance (10-20%) for the SE Plains. Given the
increase in moisture, flash flooding has the potential to be an
increased threat early next week and will need to watch trends on
this in the coming days.

For temperatures, the forecast is a couple degrees above the NBM for
highs through Sunday, then coming closer into line with the NBM for
early next week. Highs in the triple digits will be possible for
Pueblo and eastward into the SE Plains Friday into the weekend with
highs in the upper 90s for Colorado Springs and in the upper 80s to
lower 90s for the San Luis Valley. In coordination with the Boulder
office on giving a 48 hour heads up for urban areas, coupled
with a Heat Risk value of 3-4 for Pueblo, a Heat Advisory has
been issued each day for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday for
Pueblo, El Paso, and eastern Fremont counties. This will need to
be monitored with future packages for possible expansion to more
rural areas. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions will mostly prevail across the terminals through
the TAF period. The exception will be in isolated thunderstorms
which will move near Alamosa from 22Z-03Z and Colorado Springs
from 22Z-02Z. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities with gusty
winds to 25kts will be possible within thunderstorms, but
confidence is too low to include as a TEMPO group at this time,
thus VCTS is mentioned at this time. If confidence increases,
future amendments to the TAFs will be made to include TEMPO
groups. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ083>086.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ083>086.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...WOODRUM