062
FXUS65 KPUB 112041
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures today increase through the week.

- 100F+ temperatures expected over the plains starting Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon over the
mountains.

- Cooler temperatures and more moisture return to the area next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Temperatures increase further today as the upper high moves in over
our region aloft. Today`s highs will be in the mid-upper 90s across
the plains and in the 80s over the valleys. Looking at POPs,
northern flow aloft should keep the large majority of showers and
storms confined to the higher terrain. Isolated to scattered
coverage is expected this afternoon into evening, with some of the
models coming in a bit too aggressive with coverage given how dry
things are near the surface. If showers do manage to move off of the
mountains, could hear a few rumbles of thunder along I-25 before the
storms dissipate. Some models do have a few isolated showers over
the far southeast plains during this timeframe as well. The area
will quickly dry out overnight, with low temperatures across the
plains remaining warm and generally in the mid-60s.

Friday...

Friday will be the first of our concerningly hot days for this forecast
period. High temperatures will climb into the low 100s across parts
of the eastern plains, with the remainder staying in the upper-90s
while the valleys sit in the high-80s. There will be some moisture
present over our region, perhaps just enough to avoid breaking any
records, though it will be a close thing. Some scattered showers and
storms will also be possible once again over the mountains while the
plains remain mostly dry. Will have to see if the temperatures out
east increase any more in incoming model runs, which will determine
if the Heat Advisory will need expanded.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024
Saturday-Sunday...

The upper high will move over Colorado this weekend, with
temperatures increasing further along with our heat concerns.
Saturday and Sunday will both see high temperatures ranging from the
upper-90s to low 100s across the eastern plains while the valleys
his the upper-80s. Our main climate sites will approach record-
breaking temperatures, but may not reach them due to what moisture
persists across the area. Once again, temperatures of future model
runs will have to be closely assessed for impacts and thresholds to
determine whether the existing Heat Advisories need to be expanded
at all. As of now, Sunday appears to be our hottest day, especially
over the far eastern plains.

Meanwhile, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the higher terrain, with a bit better coverage on Sunday.
Showers should be generally high-based and disorganized due to a
lack of mid-level flow. A few storms may drift east onto the plains
but will dissipate rather quickly.

Additionally, spotty critical fire weather concerns will be possible
over the far southeast plains both Saturday and Sunday. The NBM may
be a bit overdone on winds, and even then they are fairly marginal,
so will hold off on any highlights for now.


Monday Onwards...

Monday will be something of a transition day, with highs just a few
degrees lower than Sunday (low-100s are still expected over parts of
the eastern plains). However, the upper high will start to move east
and the ridge will flatten our somewhat, giving us a bit more
available moisture for some increased POPs throughout the day.
Precipitation coverage will increase through the afternoon, with
showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain and parts of the
adjacent plains.

A cooler airmass will move into the region Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing in a cold front and dropping high temperatures. Still some
variability within the models on how much the temps will drop next
week, but the trend is for a fairly noticeable cooldown, with the
current forecast placing highs in the 80s-90s. Will see how future
model runs place things. Additionally, confidence continues to
slowly increase in some better monsoon moisture hitting our area
around the middle of next week, bringing in the potential for some
heavier rainfall for our region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR is expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds will
be generally light under 15 knots and diurnally driven. Some
passing, high-based showers will be possible near KALS and KCOS this
afternoon and evening, which could result in some gusty outflow
winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ083>086.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ083>086-
093-095>098.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086-093-
095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO/PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO