Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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930 FXUS65 KPUB 121146 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 546 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot Temperatures through the weekend with Heat Advisories in place across portions of southern Colorado. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon over and near the higher terrain. - Increasing available moisture next week leading to better coverage of afternoon storms and cooling temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 416 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to indicate north to northwest flow aloft across the Rockies, as the large 597DM upper high slides east across the southern Great Basin and a broad upper trough in in place across the Upper Great Lakes into the Central Conus. Water vapor imagery is also indicating minor embeddded waves diving down the back side of the trough across the Northern Rockies and into the High Plains at this time. These waves has kept convection ongoing across the eastern Colorado Plains through the overnight hours, with KLAA indicating gusty winds to 40 mph associated with a passing showers at 3 am. Northerly flow aloft remains across the region through tonight, as the upper high continues to slide east into the Western Colorado tonight. Latest models continue to indicate another weak wave across the Northern Rockies digging south and east across the Eastern Plains this afternoon, along with enough moisture to work with strong solar insolation, to support isolated to scattered showers and storms across the all of south central and southeast Colorado this afternoon. Convection continues to be high based, with the main storm threats being gusty outflow winds and lightning, with enough potential instability and shear across the southeast plains for a stronger storm to produce locally severe wind gusts and small hail. Warm air aloft under the high continues to push east across the Central Rockies, with highs today continuing to warm a few more degrees from yesterday`s values with readings in the mid 90s to lower 100`s expected across the southeast Plains, with mainly 70s and 80s across the higher terrain, save for 60s at the peaks. Could see a few record highs tied or set across the area today, with current records for COS of 98F in 1971, 105F at PUB in 1971 and 92F at ALS in 2020. With that said, current Heat Advisories for the urban areas of eastern Fremont, El Paso and Pueblo counties remains on track from 10 am to 8 pm, with those needing to be outside needing to stay hydrated through out the day. Any convection wanes through the evening with temperatures slow to cool through the overnight with lows mainly in the 60s across the Plains and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 416 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Saturday-Sunday...The upper high remains progged to be across the Central Rockies through the weekend, with very warm air aloft (H7 temps of 18C to 22C) leading to very warm tempertures in the upper 90s to possibly around 110F, as some guidance indicates across the southeast Plains this weekend. We have continued Heat Advisories for eastern Fremont, El Paso, Pueblo, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa counties both days, and have also added Crowley county. While we can`t rule out isolated to scattered high based showers/storms, mainly over the higher terrain, I did cut back NBM pops and increased NBM temperatures through the weekend, with expected subsidence associated with under the upper high. Current records for the weekend are 100F in 1954 on Saturday and 96F in 2005 on Sunday at COS, 109F in 2003 on Saturday and 107F in 2003 on Sunday at PUB and 93F in 2003 on Satuday and 93F in 2003 on Sunday at ALS. Time will tell how hot it will get, however some guidance does indicate highs across the southeast Plains getting close to the current statewide record high temperature of 115F at John Martin Dam on July 20th of 2019. Monday continues to be a transition day, as the upper high is progged to slide south and west into the Great Basin through the middle of next week. This will develop modest northwest flow aloft across the region, and allowing for a slow increase in available moisture and cooling temperatures areawide. NBM seems to be too aggressive with Pops on Monday, though should continue to increasing coverage of daily showers and storms through the rest of the work week. Highs on Monday to remain above seasonal levels and with mid 90s to lower 100s still expected across the Plains. However, with the upper high sliding south of the area and the expected increase in convection, will see highs cooling back to near seasonal levels through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 539 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, with upper level ridging continuing to build into the Rockies. There will be enough moisture to support isolated high based showers and storms this afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain. If storms can move over or near the terminals, there could be gusty outflow winds to near 50 mph, however with low confidence of storms near the terminals, only kept vcsh late this afternoon at ALS. Any convection wanes through the early evening, with mainly clear skies expected through the overnight hours. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ083>086- 089-093-095>098. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086-089- 093-095>098. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO/MW AVIATION...MW