654
FXUS65 KPUB 122356
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
556 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Temperatures through Monday with Heat Advisories in place
across portions of southern Colorado.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each
  afternoon over and near the higher terrain.

- Increasing available moisture next week leading to better
  coverage of afternoon storms and cooling temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Currently...satellite imagery shows an strong upper high spinning
over the Great Basin, with weak energy dropping south across
Colorado this afternoon.  This has sparked isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain, with the
main focus on the San Juan and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
Temperatures are quite hot with 90s to lower 100s across the Plains.

Rest of Today and Tonight...not much change expected in the upper
pattern with the upper high remaining in place across the Great
Basin.  A weak embedded upper wave will continue to impact southern
Colorado through this evening before clearing to the south by
midnight.  This weak upper energy will likely keep isolated to
scattered shower activity going across the higher terrain through
around 9 PM.  The main concerns over the mountains will be lightning
and gusty outflow winds to near 45 mph.  Model guidance is also
trying to develop isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this
evening across Kiowa and Prowers Counties.  If a storm can get going
in this area, gusty outflow winds near 60 mph may be possible along
with lightning.  Expect all shower and thunderstorm activity to
dissipate by midnight, with clearing conditions through Saturday
morning.

Saturday...very little change in the forecast with the upper high
sitting across the Great Basin.  Temperatures are forecast to remain
hot, with upper 90s to lower 100s across much of the Plains, with
Heat Advisories in place.  Take precaution to limit outdoor
activities, and drink plenty of fluids to remain hydrated!  Know the
symptoms of heat related illnesses, and check on those vulnerable to
high heat.

Another embedded wave is forecast to drop south across Colorado in
northerly flow.  Expect another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain by late morning
to early afternoon.  The latest guidance is a bit further west with
energy, and a couple of showers or thunderstorms may be possible
across the Pikes Peak Region and into the I-25 corridor.  At this
time, coverage looks rather sparse.  The main risks with any
thunderstorms that develop will be gusty outflow winds to 45 mph and
lightning.

Spotty, near critical fire weather conditions will be possible over
portions of the Plains as well.  Humidity values will be well below
15 percent given the hot temperatures and low dewpoints.  However,
winds will be marginal.  No fire weather highlights are expected at
this time. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The upper high is still progged to move overhead this weekend,
leading to the continued increase of high temperatures. High
temperatures across the eastern plains will range from the high-90s
to nearly 110 out near the CO-KS border, with high-80s to 90s over
the valleys. Scattered showers and high-based thunderstorms will be
possible Sunday afternoon, but with the synoptic subsidence from the
building high it seems like model POPs are still coming in a bit
overdone.

Monday is still expected to be something of a transition day, with
the upper high expected to slide slightly to the south and west
through the middle of next week. Monday`s highs will still be hot,
with parts of the plains hitting over 100 degrees again, while the
valleys remain mostly in the 80s. Incoming monsoonal moisture will
increase beneath the high, resulting in a general increase of
shower/thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon hours next week.

A cold front will come down sometime on Tuesday as an upper low
passes far to our northeast, bringing high temperatures down into
the 80s across the area by Wednesday. Behind this front comes some
upslope flow across the eastern plains, and with it an increasingly
consistent signal for some heavy rain around midweek. Will keep an
eye on ensembles as data continues to come in, and while some models
are likely overdoing it a bit the potential cannot be ignored.


Here are the record high temperatures for Sunday and Monday, along
with our forecasted highs:


Sunday, July 14th:

Alamosa: Record of 93 (2003), forecasted high of 89

Colorado Springs: Record of 96 (2005) forecasted high of 98

Pueblo: Record of 107 (2003)forecasted high of 105


Monday, July 15th:

Alamosa: Record of 91 (2003) forecasted high of 88

Colorado Springs: Record of 97 (1925) forecasted high of 94

Pueblo: Record of 103 (2022) forecasted high of 102

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS,
KPUB and KALS. Ongoing isolated convection is expected to remain
over the higher terrain for the most part, so will maintain
VCSH mention for KALS through 03z this eve along with northerly
gusty winds up to 22 kts. No mention of convection for KCOS and
KPUB, but outflow boundaries will produce erratic wind gusts up
to around 15 kts at times until 03z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ083>086-
089-093-095>098.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086-089-
093-095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOORE