Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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265 FXUS65 KPUB 140003 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 603 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record heat expected again on Sunday with one more hot day expected on Monday. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over and near the mountains each afternoon and evening, with chances for storms on the plains increasing from Tuesday onwards. - Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday and continue through much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Into the evening, the thermal ridge will continue to slide eastward over the area. Hi-res models (HRRR/NAM 3km) indicate isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing to develop for areas along and west of the I-25 corridor this afternoon and then shifting to development further east into the SE Plains by evening. Given how dry it is in the lower levels with 60 degree dew point depressions, precipitation will be limited with more virga and dry lightning expected. Downdraft CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg west of the I-25 corridor and 1500-2100 J/kg east of the I-25 corridor make dry microbursts possible with some gusts reaching 40-50 mph. There continues to be NAM/GFS/ECMWF agreement that the mid-level thermal ridge will slide eastward across the area through Sunday and then begin to breakdown and slide southward on Monday. This will allow for at least one more day of oppressive heat with Heat Advisories for the I-25 corridor and eastward into the SE Plains on Sunday. On Monday, as the ridge breaks down, we still could see some locations reach the 100-105F range in the SE Plains and a Heat Advisory may be needed for eastern Kiowa, Prowers, and Bent counties in future updates. Highs on Sunday are pretty close to the National Blend of Models (NBM) with the I-25 corridor again nearing 100F (Pueblo up to 105F) and some locations in the SE Plains in the 105- 110F range. For Monday, it will be just a few degrees slightly cooler for the I-25 corridor and eastward into the Plains. For the San Luis Valley highs each day will be in the upper 80s. For higher terrain, highs generally in the 70s and 80s can be expected each day. The pattern of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday and again on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (SPC HREF) indicates showers and thunderstorms developing again over higher terrain and then spreading to areas along and east of the I-25 corridor on Sunday. Moisture will be on the increase on Monday with PWAT values increasing to near 1.00". This increase in moisture will contribute to higher chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area and especially across the SE Plains. Instability appears to be pretty weak each day (SBCAPE <500 J/kg) although more moderate shear (0-6km 40kts approx) should help contribute to some stronger storms with gusty winds each day. Given the increase PWAT values, cannot rule out localized heavy rainfall and a flash flooding threat, but it should isolated in nature. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A more active period is ahead as the GFS/ECMWF ensembles indicate the thermal ridge will break down, slide southward, and moisture will be on the increase. For the mid-week through Friday, the mid- level flow looks to become more northwesterly as the ridge amplifies and builds back northward into Utah and a trough passes well northeast of the area. Deep layer moisture will be on the increase this week and will contribute to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, especially over the SE Plains. A cold front will drop southward across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, providing forcing to make showers and thunderstorms more likely and severe weather with damaging winds and large hail possible. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be diurnally-driven each afternoon into the evening with lulls with the loss of heating overnight. Given PWAT values increasing to 1.25" to even 1.5" in the SE Plains, flash flooding will become more of a threat Tuesday and continuing into the end of the week. For temperatures, highs on Tuesday will be cooler and closer to normal seasonal values, ranging from the low to mid 90s across the SE Plains to the upper 80s along the Rampart Range I-25 corridor to the mid 80s in the San Luis Valley. In the wake of the front, a cooler air mass along with increase moisture/cloudiness will contribute to temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal Wednesday into Friday. /04-Woodrum/ && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 600 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Erratic winds due to convective outflows will persist until 02z-04z this evening, though chances of any tsra at taf sites looks to low to include in the forecast at this point. Winds then become light drainage at most sites overnight into Sunday morning. Little change in the pattern expected on Sunday, with isolated tsra producing periods of gusty and erratic winds at all sites after 18z-20z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089- 093-095>098. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086-089- 093-095>098. && $$ SHORT TERM...WOODRUM LONG TERM...WOODRUM AVIATION...PETERSEN