913
FXUS65 KPUB 191706
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1106 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More daily thunderstorms expected with a few strong to severe
  possible this afternoon and evening on the Plains.

- Warmer this afternoon, cooling off for the weekend

- Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms are
  expected for Saturday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Currently...satellite imagery shows scattered cloud cover across
much of southern Colorado early this morning as weak energy exits
the region.  Temperature are mild, with mostly 50s and 60s with
light winds.  Moisture remains in place across the Plains, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Today...an upper level high will sit across the Intermountain West,
producing continued northerly flow across Colorado.  An embedded
upper vort max will shift south across the Palmer Divide by late
afternoon and early evening.  Expect initial thunderstorm
development over the higher terrain by 11 AM, spreading eastward
into the Palmer Divide region by early afternoon.  As the upper wave
continues south-southeast, additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop.  Shear will be pretty weak, expect out near the Kansas
border, and instability somewhat limited along the I-25 corridor.
Better daytime heating and moisture will remain pooled across the
far Eastern Plains, where one or two strong to possibly severe
storms may be possible.  Hail to near 1.5 inches in diameter and
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph may be possible with stronger storms
near the Kansas border by late afternoon and early evening.  Storms
will also be efficient rainfall producers, given PWAT values nearing
1 inch, and localized flash flooding may also be possible.
Temperatures will warm through the 80s and into the lower 90s across
much of the Plains this afternoon.

Tonight...the upper high will slowly shift westward into the Great
Basin overnight.  This will keep southern Colorado under broad
northerly flow aloft.  The upper wave responsible for showers and
thunderstorms will continue to track southeast across the Plains,
and exit the region overnight.  Model guidance shows the best
potential for a couple strong to possibly severe storms near the
Kansas border through around 9 PM.  Thunderstorm activity should
wind down after that, as the upper vort max continues away from the
area.  Model guidance is also producing an outflow boundary from
this convection, that will shift back west across the Plains,
helping keep moisture in place overnight and setting up the area for
Saturday.  Overnight lows will remain on the mild side, with 50s and
60s across the area. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Saturday - Thursday: For the long term period, a relatively
consistent pattern will be in place. Flow will be northerly to
northwesterly as a trough develops across the eastern US and ridging
gets pushed further west across the western US. Ensemble model
guidance are in good agreement about this, leading to high (60-79%)
confidence in this pattern evolution. While no major forcing is
anticipated with this pattern, minor short waves, along with
orographics aided by diurnal upslope, will allow for periods of
heightened forcing. With periods of increased forcing, along with
adequate moisture remaining over the area, daily isolated to
scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon. The greatest coverage of showers and storms will be along
the mountains, though showers and storms will trek across the
valleys and plains as well as they become pushed off of the higher
terrain. With that all said, precipitation present each day will
dissipate across south central and southeastern Colorado during the
evening hours as instability and forcing wane. Looking at
temperatures, the weekend and beginning of the next work week will
be the coolest, with temperatures below seasonal values thanks to
some cold front passes. Then heading into the mid to later part
of next week, temperatures will slowly rebound back to near
seasonal values as the aforementioned ridge starts to slide back
east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around
noon and drift off into the adjacent lower elevations after 20-21z.
Primary affects at the terminals will be gusty outflow winds from
thunderstorms with peak gusts up to 45 kts possible.  Some brief
MVFR to IFR cigs/vis with +TSRA will be possible if an unlikely
direct hit from a stronger thunderstorm occurs.  KCOS will see the
best chance for TSRA at the terminal though probabilities just below
50% will limit mention to VCTS in the TAF for now. KPUB and KALS
could also see -TSRA though even lower odds will limit mention to
VCTS for now.  A cold front will move through KCOS and KPUB which
settle winds into a more northerly component after thunderstorms
pass to the east with winds eventually shifting around from the east
tomorrow afternoon. KALS will see winds shift around from the east
around 10-15 kts early this evening before becoming light and
variable overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT