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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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205 FXUS65 KPUB 142316 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 516 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One more hot day is expected on Monday before cooler temperatures arrive on Tuesday. - A Red Flag Warning for Dry Lightning remains in effect for the central mountains, along with Teller County. - Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue each day, with chances increasing Tuesday through the remainder of the week. - There is an increased chance of severe weather on Tuesday with the potential of flash flooding Tuesday into the late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Into the evening, the mid-level thermal ridge will slowly retreat southward into northern New Mexico. Similar to the last two days, the GFS RH time-height cross section indicates that moisture aloft is confined to the 500-250mb layer with very dry air in the lower levels. With support from some weak mid-level vort energy to provide forcing, hi-res models again support the continued development of isolated showers and thunderstorms into the SE Plains this evening. While instability will be mostly weak this afternoon (<500 J/kg), downdraft CAPE will once again be in the 1000-1500 range west of the Front Range and in the 1500-2000 J/kg range from the I-25 corridor to the SE Plains. Thus, while precipitation reaching the ground will be limited, virga with enhanced downdrafts could once again lead to some strong wind gusts to 50 mph. Considering how dry it is in the lower levels, dry lightning is also a concern with thunderstorms with a Red Flag Warning in place for Lake/Chaffee/Teller counties. A consensus of the models are in agreement that the mid-level ridge will break down over the area and continue to drop southward into Arizona and New Mexico through this period. With the thermal ridge dropping southward, it will allow for slightly cooler temperatures across the area on Monday. While the Storm Prediction Center has portions of the SE Plains highlighted with a Marginal Risk in its Day 2 Convective Outlook, instability will still be somewhat limited (<1000 J/kg) with weak shear (0-6km bulk 25kts) and thus yet another day of showers and thunderstorms is expected with virga and dry downbursts will be possible. Mid- level forcing again along with deepening moisture aloft will contribute to increased coverage, with the HRRR/NAM 3km hinting at more vigorous scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. With the loss of heating, showers and thunderstorms should mostly diminish Monday night, although a rogue a shower cannot completely ruled out. For temperatures, one more hot day is expected on Monday, especially in the late morning to early afternoon hours before convection develops. Highs on Monday will range from the 105F in the SE Plains to the upper 90s to near triple digits along the I-25 corridor to the upper 80s in the San Luis Valley to the 70s for higher terrain. Given high temperatures will again eclipse 105F, a Heat Advisory was issued for Prowers, Bent, and Otero counties. With HeatRisk values anticipated to be 3 again, another Heat Advisory was also issued for Pueblo/Colorado Springs/Canon City and surrounding areas. Overnight lows Sunday and Monday night will be warm, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s in the SE Plains to the mid 60s along the I-25 corridor to near 50 for the San Luis Valley. /04-Woodrum/ && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 There is GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble agreement that the mid-level ridge will flatten south of the area on Tuesday and then amplify more into Utah Wednesday through Saturday. This will allow the mid- level flow to shift from west-northwesterly Tuesday to northwesterly for the mid-week and then more northerly by the end of the week into the weekend. This, coupled with increasing moisture will allow for a much more active period as disturbances ride up and over the ridge and drop into southeastern Colorado. On Tuesday, a cold front will slide southwestward into the area as high pressure builds into the northern Plains. This feature will usher in a cooler air mass, bringing temperatures closer to normal seasonal values. Forcing from this feature and some mid-level vort energy, coupled with increased moisture (PWAT 1.0-1.5"), weak instability (500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE), and moderate shear (30-35kts 0- 6km bulk) will contribute to a Marginal Risk of severe weather Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This is currently highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center`s Day 3 Convective Outlook and would not be surprised if this risk gets shifted a little further west closer to the Front Range. With the severe risk, damaging winds and large hail will be threats along with flash flooding. For Wednesday into the weekend, several rounds of short waves can be expected riding southeastward and southward into the area, coupled with diurnal heating each day to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms. With heavy rainfall anticipated, WPC has highlighted much of the with a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall in its Days 3, 4, and 5 forecasts. It is expected that this will continue into the late week, with flash flooding the biggest threat with thunderstorms through this period and still a marginal severe (wind/hail) threat expected many of these days. For temperatures, increased cloud coverage will limit temperatures early Tuesday before cooler air pushes into the area. Still, highs in the lower to mid 90s can be expected for the I-25 corridor and SE Plains, mid 80s for the San Luis Valley and 70s for higher terrain. By Wednesday and continuing through Saturday, with cooler air in place, temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal. Generally highs mid-week into the weekend will range from the mid to upper 80s for the I-25 corridor/SE Plains to the mid to upper 70s for the San Luis Valley to the 60s for higher terrain. /04-Woodrum/ && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 508 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds will be gusty and erratic at all terminals until 02z-04z this evening, as convective outflows drift across the area, and a vcts is possible at KPUB where boundaries may collide and force storms 00z-02z. Winds then slowly subside after 04z-06z, with drainage flows at most locations by Monday morning. On Monday, slightly better coverage of storms across the area as moisture begins to increase, and will include a vcts at all sites after 21z-22z. Again, gusty and erratic winds the main feature with any convection Monday. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-221. Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089- 093-095>098. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ083>086-093- 097-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...WOODRUM LONG TERM...WOODRUM AVIATION...PETERSEN