957
FXUS65 KPUB 150205
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
805 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more hot day is expected on Monday before cooler temperatures
  arrive on Tuesday.

- A Red Flag Warning for Dry Lightning remains in effect for the
  central mountains, along with Teller County.

- Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue
  each day, with chances increasing Tuesday through the
  remainder of the week.

- There is an increased chance of severe weather on Tuesday with
  the potential of flash flooding Tuesday into the late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

While weak thunderstorms will persist through early evening over
the higher terrain, the risk for dry thunderstorms and
lightning has dropped substantially, therefore, the Red Flag
Warning has been allowed to expire.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Into the evening, the mid-level thermal ridge will slowly
retreat southward into northern New Mexico. Similar to the last
two days, the GFS RH time-height cross section indicates that
moisture aloft is confined to the 500-250mb layer with very dry
air in the lower levels. With support from some weak mid-level
vort energy to provide forcing, hi-res models again support the
continued development of isolated showers and thunderstorms into
the SE Plains this evening. While instability will be mostly
weak this afternoon (<500 J/kg), downdraft CAPE will once again
be in the 1000-1500 range west of the Front Range and in the
1500-2000 J/kg range from the I-25 corridor to the SE Plains.
Thus, while precipitation reaching the ground will be limited,
virga with enhanced downdrafts could once again lead to some
strong wind gusts to 50 mph. Considering how dry it is in the
lower levels, dry lightning is also a concern with thunderstorms
with a Red Flag Warning in place for Lake/Chaffee/Teller
counties.

A consensus of the models are in agreement that the mid-level ridge
will break down over the area and continue to drop southward into
Arizona and New Mexico through this period. With the thermal ridge
dropping southward, it will allow for slightly cooler temperatures
across the area on Monday. While the Storm Prediction Center
has portions of the SE Plains highlighted with a Marginal Risk
in its Day 2 Convective Outlook, instability will still be
somewhat limited (<1000 J/kg) with weak shear (0-6km bulk 25kts)
and thus yet another day of showers and thunderstorms is
expected with virga and dry downbursts will be possible. Mid-
level forcing again along with deepening moisture aloft will
contribute to increased coverage, with the HRRR/NAM 3km hinting
at more vigorous scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. With the loss of heating, showers and
thunderstorms should mostly diminish Monday night, although a
rogue a shower cannot completely ruled out.

For temperatures, one more hot day is expected on Monday, especially
in the late morning to early afternoon hours before convection
develops. Highs on Monday will range from the 105F in the SE Plains
to the upper 90s to near triple digits along the I-25 corridor to
the upper 80s in the San Luis Valley to the 70s for higher terrain.
Given high temperatures will again eclipse 105F, a Heat
Advisory was issued for Prowers, Bent, and Otero counties. With
HeatRisk values anticipated to be 3 again, another Heat
Advisory was also issued for Pueblo/Colorado Springs/Canon City
and surrounding areas. Overnight lows Sunday and Monday night
will be warm, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s in the SE
Plains to the mid 60s along the I-25 corridor to near 50 for
the San Luis Valley. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

There is GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble agreement that the mid-level
ridge will flatten south of the area on Tuesday and then amplify
more into Utah Wednesday through Saturday. This will allow the mid-
level flow to shift from west-northwesterly Tuesday to northwesterly
for the mid-week and then more northerly by the end of the week into
the weekend. This, coupled with increasing moisture will allow
for a much more active period as disturbances ride up and over
the ridge and drop into southeastern Colorado.

On Tuesday, a cold front will slide southwestward into the area as
high pressure builds into the northern Plains. This feature will
usher in a cooler air mass, bringing temperatures closer to normal
seasonal values. Forcing from this feature and some mid-level vort
energy, coupled with increased moisture (PWAT 1.0-1.5"), weak
instability (500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE), and moderate shear (30-35kts 0-
6km bulk) will contribute to a Marginal Risk of severe weather
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This is currently highlighted
by the Storm Prediction Center`s Day 3 Convective Outlook and would
not be surprised if this risk gets shifted a little further west
closer to the Front Range. With the severe risk, damaging winds and
large hail will be threats along with flash flooding.

For Wednesday into the weekend, several rounds of short waves can be
expected riding southeastward and southward into the area, coupled
with diurnal heating each day to allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. With heavy rainfall anticipated, WPC has highlighted
much of the with a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall in its Days
3, 4, and 5 forecasts. It is expected that this will continue into
the late week, with flash flooding the biggest threat with
thunderstorms through this period and still a marginal severe
(wind/hail) threat expected many of these days.

For temperatures, increased cloud coverage will limit temperatures
early Tuesday before cooler air pushes into the area. Still, highs
in the lower to mid 90s can be expected for the I-25 corridor and SE
Plains, mid 80s for the San Luis Valley and 70s for higher terrain.
By Wednesday and continuing through Saturday, with cooler air in
place, temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal.
Generally highs mid-week into the weekend will range from the
mid to upper 80s for the I-25 corridor/SE Plains to the mid to
upper 70s for the San Luis Valley to the 60s for higher terrain.
/04-Woodrum/

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds will be gusty and
erratic at all terminals until 02z-04z this evening, as
convective outflows drift across the area, and a vcts is possible
at KPUB where boundaries may collide and force storms 00z-02z.
Winds then slowly subside after 04z-06z, with drainage flows at
most locations by Monday morning. On Monday, slightly better
coverage of storms across the area as moisture begins to
increase, and will include a vcts at all sites after 21z-22z.
Again, gusty and erratic winds the main feature with any
convection Monday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ083>086-093-
097-098.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...PETERSEN