514
FXUS65 KPUB 161127
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
527 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front looks to bring cooler temperatures and increased
  chances for showers and storms across the area today.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible across our plains
  this afternoon and this evening, with main risks being hail up
  to 1 inch, damaging winds over 60 mph, and excessive
  rainfall.

- Strong to severe thunderstorm, along with flash flooding,
  risks continue Wednesday, with daily shower and thunderstorm
  chances persisting into the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures continue into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Currently..

Aside from some possible light showers over our southern mountains
and scattered mid and upper-level cover, satellite and radar are
otherwise clear this morning. Temperatures have cooled into the mid
60s to low 70s on our plains. Dewpoints are ranging from 40s over
the high country and El Paso County, to 50s over the rest of the I-
25 corridor, to 60s over the far eastern plains, another notable
increase from where we were yesterday. Winds are either westerly or
are following normal drainage patterns in most locations.

Today and Tonight..

Today`s forecast will depend entirely on the timing and strength of
a cold front that models are still not in a huge amount of agreement
on. The general consensus seems to bring it in throughout the late
morning, giving us a few hours of moist easterly upslope before
convection starts to fire over the mountains and I-25 corridor. This
scenario would also provide the best shear, with some high res model
guidance suggesting close to 40kt of bulk shear over northern
portions of the I-25 corridor this afternoon. Models vary greatly in
the amount of available instability at this time, but it seems
plausible that we could have anywhere from 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE
over Pueblo and El Paso counties this afternoon as well, with higher
amounts likely further east. Again, with a later frontal passage and
less moist easterly upslope ahead of this event, storms will likely
be weaker near the terrain. The potential for strong to severe
storms out east seems will be much more likely, as storms are
expected to intensify as the push east and into more favorable
conditions for severe development. Storms are expected to line out
as they approach the Kansas border later this evening. This complex,
and all other storms today, will have the potential of producing
very heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, along with
damaging winds over 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. Models are also
struggling with today`s temperatures, and even now are showing up to
10 degree temperature spreads based on frontal timing and initiation
of convection this afternoon. Went with a blend of NBM and
MAV/MET/Consshort for today, which settled on temps in the mid 80s
to mid 90s for our plains, mid 80s for mountain valleys, and 60s and
70s for higher terrain locations. Most guidance has us clear of
showers and storms by around 10pm this evening at the latest, with
overnight lows remaining near normal for most locations under partly
to mostly cloud skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

By Wednesday, will see even cooler temperatures across the area
given the cooler air mass but also with the possibility for
lingering cloud cover with isolated showers for much of the day.
Guidance in fair agreement with deep and persistent east
southeast flow in place on this day, flow that will likely push
into the higher terrain. This will support a further westward
expansion of this moisture and instability, all of which will
support another day of thunderstorm development over and near
the higher terrain and into the I-25 corridor. There will be a
risk for strong to severe development on Wednesday given the
instability and shear likely in place, but will be growing more
concerned for heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash
flooding, especially as PWATs will be on the rise.

Will see the upper ridge build back in across the region
Thursday into Friday with some warming temperatures expected
across the area, though still remaining near normal for this
time of the year. An active and wetter pattern is still
appearing possible during this time and even into the weekend,
with daily shower and thunderstorm development expected across
southern Colorado. While can`t rule out stronger development,
think the risk of heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding
would be the trend. Especially as repeated rounds of
thunderstorms could occur over the same areas this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, through the rest of this morning and into the early afternoon
hours, before increasing chances for afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms move in after 20Z. Winds will become easterly at
KCOS and KPUB later this morning, before storm chances move in. The
most likely timeframe for storms to move on station at KCOS will be
from 20Z to 23Z, with the most likely timeframe for KPUB being 21Z
to 00Z and for KALS 21Z to 23Z. Maintained VCTS for now, as
confidence was too low to tempo in any storms on station at any site
at this time. If any storms do move over station, the main risks
will be heavy rain, hail up to 1 inch, and winds gusting to 55
mph.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...EHR