379
FXUS65 KPUB 161731
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front looks to bring cooler temperatures and increased
  chances for showers and storms across the area today.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible across our plains
  this afternoon and this evening, with main risks being hail up
  to 1 inch, damaging winds over 60 mph, and excessive
  rainfall.

- Strong to severe thunderstorm, along with flash flooding,
  risks continue Wednesday, with daily shower and thunderstorm
  chances persisting into the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures continue into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Currently..

Aside from some possible light showers over our southern mountains
and scattered mid and upper-level cover, satellite and radar are
otherwise clear this morning. Temperatures have cooled into the mid
60s to low 70s on our plains. Dewpoints are ranging from 40s over
the high country and El Paso County, to 50s over the rest of the I-
25 corridor, to 60s over the far eastern plains, another notable
increase from where we were yesterday. Winds are either westerly or
are following normal drainage patterns in most locations.

Today and Tonight..

Today`s forecast will depend entirely on the timing and strength of
a cold front that models are still not in a huge amount of agreement
on. The general consensus seems to bring it in throughout the late
morning, giving us a few hours of moist easterly upslope before
convection starts to fire over the mountains and I-25 corridor. This
scenario would also provide the best shear, with some high res model
guidance suggesting close to 40kt of bulk shear over northern
portions of the I-25 corridor this afternoon. Models vary greatly in
the amount of available instability at this time, but it seems
plausible that we could have anywhere from 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE
over Pueblo and El Paso counties this afternoon as well, with higher
amounts likely further east. Again, with a later frontal passage and
less moist easterly upslope ahead of this event, storms will likely
be weaker near the terrain. The potential for strong to severe
storms out east seems will be much more likely, as storms are
expected to intensify as the push east and into more favorable
conditions for severe development. Storms are expected to line out
as they approach the Kansas border later this evening. This complex,
and all other storms today, will have the potential of producing
very heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, along with
damaging winds over 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. Models are also
struggling with today`s temperatures, and even now are showing up to
10 degree temperature spreads based on frontal timing and initiation
of convection this afternoon. Went with a blend of NBM and
MAV/MET/Consshort for today, which settled on temps in the mid 80s
to mid 90s for our plains, mid 80s for mountain valleys, and 60s and
70s for higher terrain locations. Most guidance has us clear of
showers and storms by around 10pm this evening at the latest, with
overnight lows remaining near normal for most locations under partly
to mostly cloud skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

By Wednesday, will see even cooler temperatures across the area
given the cooler air mass but also with the possibility for
lingering cloud cover with isolated showers for much of the day.
Guidance in fair agreement with deep and persistent east
southeast flow in place on this day, flow that will likely push
into the higher terrain. This will support a further westward
expansion of this moisture and instability, all of which will
support another day of thunderstorm development over and near
the higher terrain and into the I-25 corridor. There will be a
risk for strong to severe development on Wednesday given the
instability and shear likely in place, but will be growing more
concerned for heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash
flooding, especially as PWATs will be on the rise.

Will see the upper ridge build back in across the region
Thursday into Friday with some warming temperatures expected
across the area, though still remaining near normal for this
time of the year. An active and wetter pattern is still
appearing possible during this time and even into the weekend,
with daily shower and thunderstorm development expected across
southern Colorado. While can`t rule out stronger development,
think the risk of heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding
would be the trend. Especially as repeated rounds of
thunderstorms could occur over the same areas this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB
through 24 hours.

KALS: Showers and storms are expected to move off of the nearby
mountains by 21Z this afternoon, and will remain in the vicinity of
the terminal through this evening. Timing on any direct impacts to
the terminal will be difficult due to the scattered nature of storms
today. Current best chances for storms at the terminal will be
between 20-01Z, though confidence in coverage is still low enough to
leave as VCTS for now. Storms will produce gusty, erratic outflow
winds and moderate rainfall. Storms across the valley should mostly
dissipate prior to midnight tonight.

KCOS: Storms will move in from the terrain to the west shortly after
20Z, with storms expected close to and over the terminal starting
around 21Z, briefly reducing vis and ceilings. This timing could
vary a bit depending on the speed of the incoming cold front. When
the front arrives, winds will turn from the NNE before becoming more
variable in the presence of showers and storms through the remainder
of today and into this evening. Storms should leave the area by
about 10pm tonight, leaving winds a bit lighter overnight, with a
northerly component.

KPUB: Easterly winds will persist ahead of the incoming cold front.
As it arrives, showers and thunderstorms will pick up and move off
of the mountains and towards the terminal. Best chances for storms
at the terminal will be between 22-00Z this afternoon, with storms
remaining in the general vicinity into early evening. Near and
beneath storms, winds will be variable and gusty with moderate to
heavy rainfall. This could limit vis and cloud ceilings for brief
amounts of time through this afternoon and into this evening. Storms
should depart the area of the terminal by about 10pm tonight, with
weaker and more variable winds overnight. Winds will pick up again
from the southeast close to the end of this forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO