945
FXUS65 KPUB 162324
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
524 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, initially over
the mountains followed by the eastern plains.

- Severe risk returns Wednesday, with an increased chance for
  heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-80%) over and
  near the higher terrain through the end of work week.

- Unseasonably cool and unsettled this weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Currently...

Storms have already began popping up across the higher terrain, as
well as parts of El Paso County. Storms are moving at a decent speed
to the east-southeast and should continue to do so into this
evening. Cloud cover is scarce out east with near-60 dewpoints
across Highway 50. Still looks to be a decent setup for strong to
severe storms. Meanwhile, the front is a bit too broad to see within
the surface analysis data, but gusty surface winds denote the
presence of lift into the mountains. Parts of the front have likely
already arrived in our CWA.


Rest of Today and Tonight...

Showers and storms will continue to form through the rest of this
afternoon and into this evening, thanks to good upslope across the
plains coupled with the mid-level perturbation passing through the
flow aloft. Models are still in line with spreading precipitation
across the mountains before the mid-level flow pushes things onto
the plains. Looking at the SPC Mesoanalysis page, 1000-2000 J/kg of
CAPE and around 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear in places leave
us primed for some stronger thunderstorm development. With CAPE and
shear maximized closer to the CO-KS border, storms are still
expected to intensify as they move east. Risks for severe hazards,
including damaging outflow winds, 1+ inch hail, and heavy rain will
all increase accordingly over our eastern counties. As such, Slight
Severe Risk covers these areas on today`s SPC Convective Outlook.
Given how much moisture is in place as well, flash flooding will
definitely be on the table, specifically over burn scars and other
vulnerable areas.


Wednesday...

Cooler temperatures will blanket the area on Wednesday behind the
front, with highs only reaching into the 80s across most of our CWA.
Temps will also be kept down by lingering cloud cover and abundant
moisture. Aloft, the high pressure off to our southwest will
continue advecting in monsoonal moisture with persistent east-
southeast flow across the plains. The continued upslope flow will
allow for increased cloud cover and a westward progression of the
most unstable air. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will generally
increase Wednesday afternoon, with conditions supportive of
efficient rain producers. Showers and storms will form over the
higher terrain early in the afternoon before slowly moving off to
the southeast. Given the abundant moisture and easterly flow, while
various severe hazards are on the table, our biggest impact concern
at this time will be heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially
over the burns scars and other vulnerable areas. The Spring Creek
and Oak Ridge burn areas will especially need to be watched closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Modest west to northwest flow aloft remains progged to become more
northerly through the end of the work week, as upper level ridging
across the Southern Rockies retorgrades back across the Desert
Southwest. This will allow for an influx of available moisture as
subtropical moisture across the Desert Southwest circulates around
the upper high and into the Central Rockies. This, combined with
modest southerly return flow across the southeast Plains will lead
to PWATS of 100-150 percent of normal across the region through
the end of the work week. The available moisture, with strong
summer solar insolation and occasional disturbances within the flow
will lead to daily chances of showers and thunderstorms across south
central and southeast Colorado through the end of the work week,
with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain. With the
increased available moisture, storms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, especially
for area burn scars and other susceptible areas and areas where
heavy rain has fallen in previous days. There will also the
potential for strong to severe storms across portions of
southeast Colorado, dependent on amount of instability and
shear profiles. Temperatures through the end of the work week
look to be at to slightly below seasonal levels.

For the weekend and into early next week, the upper high is progged to
elongate north and west across the West Coast and into the Great Basin
leading to unseasonably strong north to northwest flow aloft in place
across the Rockies once again. While available moisture does
thin out within the northerly flow aloft, there will continue to
be bouts of increased uvv and moisture, especially across
Eastern Colorado, with passing waves translating down the
backside of the upper ridge across the Northern Rockies and into
the High Plains. These waves will bring cold fronts and surges
in available moisture, with continued chances of showers and
thunderstorms, especially over and near the higher terrain,
throughout the extended forecast. Temperatures through the
extended period look to be below to possible well below late
July levels, especially across the southeast Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Main convective line has moved east of KPUB and KCOS, and won`t
mention tsra in either taf for the rest of the evening, though
some briefly gusty/erratic outflow winds may be possible
00z-03z. Still a risk of a vcsh at KALS til 01z, before activity
ends. VFR Tuesday morning, then convection returns after 20z,
with vcts and potential for gusty winds and brief MVFR/IFR at
all terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN