Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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971 FXUS65 KPUB 191023 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 423 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - More daily thunderstorms expected with a few strong to severe possible this afternoon and evening on the Plains. - Warmer this afternoon, cooling off for the weekend - Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected for Saturday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Currently...satellite imagery shows scattered cloud cover across much of southern Colorado early this morning as weak energy exits the region. Temperature are mild, with mostly 50s and 60s with light winds. Moisture remains in place across the Plains, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Today...an upper level high will sit across the Intermountain West, producing continued northerly flow across Colorado. An embedded upper vort max will shift south across the Palmer Divide by late afternoon and early evening. Expect initial thunderstorm development over the higher terrain by 11 AM, spreading eastward into the Palmer Divide region by early afternoon. As the upper wave continues south-southeast, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop. Shear will be pretty weak, expect out near the Kansas border, and instability somewhat limited along the I-25 corridor. Better daytime heating and moisture will remain pooled across the far Eastern Plains, where one or two strong to possibly severe storms may be possible. Hail to near 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph may be possible with stronger storms near the Kansas border by late afternoon and early evening. Storms will also be efficient rainfall producers, given PWAT values nearing 1 inch, and localized flash flooding may also be possible. Temperatures will warm through the 80s and into the lower 90s across much of the Plains this afternoon. Tonight...the upper high will slowly shift westward into the Great Basin overnight. This will keep southern Colorado under broad northerly flow aloft. The upper wave responsible for showers and thunderstorms will continue to track southeast across the Plains, and exit the region overnight. Model guidance shows the best potential for a couple strong to possibly severe storms near the Kansas border through around 9 PM. Thunderstorm activity should wind down after that, as the upper vort max continues away from the area. Model guidance is also producing an outflow boundary from this convection, that will shift back west across the Plains, helping keep moisture in place overnight and setting up the area for Saturday. Overnight lows will remain on the mild side, with 50s and 60s across the area. Mozley && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Saturday - Thursday: For the long term period, a relatively consistent pattern will be in place. Flow will be northerly to northwesterly as a trough develops across the eastern US and ridging gets pushed further west across the western US. Ensemble model guidance are in good agreement about this, leading to high (60-79%) confidence in this pattern evolution. While no major forcing is anticipated with this pattern, minor short waves, along with orographics aided by diurnal upslope, will allow for periods of heightened forcing. With periods of increased forcing, along with adequate moisture remaining over the area, daily isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon. The greatest coverage of showers and storms will be along the mountains, though showers and storms will trek across the valleys and plains as well as they become pushed off of the higher terrain. With that all said, precipitation present each day will dissipate across south central and southeastern Colorado during the evening hours as instability and forcing wane. Looking at temperatures, the weekend and beginning of the next work week will be the coolest, with temperatures below seasonal values thanks to some cold front passes. Then heading into the mid to later part of next week, temperatures will slowly rebound back to near seasonal values as the aforementioned ridge starts to slide back east. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 421 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 KALS...VFR conditions this morning with passing mid and high clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late morning and continue through the afternoon across the San Luis Valley and may impact the terminal. Briefly reduced VIS and CIGS along with gusty outflow winds would be the main impacts. A return to VFR conditions forecast overnight into Saturday morning. KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through late morning with showers developing across the Pike Peak Region and spreading southeast through the early evening. KCOS will see the best potential for impacts from thunderstorms including low CIGS and VIS. KPUB may also see thunderstorms through the afternoon and early evening. Briefly reduced VIS and CIGS are possible at KPUB as they pass overhead. Gusty outflow winds will also be possible at both KCOS and KPUB. A return to VFR conditions is forecast once storms move southeast of the area. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOZLEY